Sunday, Feb 12th — Late
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Bengals @ Browns

DFS Showdown Strategy

By: Xandamere


Outlook

This game projects to be close, and as long as it remains so, we can expect the Bengals to attack through the air (they’re at 63.11% passing play percentage on the season but 68.72% in their last three games), while Cleveland will try to slow things down and run as much as they can. As long as the game stays close, we can have a high degree of confidence in how these teams will attack, but the question is what happens if the game swings one way or another? Well, the Bengals have been extremely pass-heavy the past few games regardless of game situation, so while they would certainly skew a bit more to the run if they’re up late by multiple scores, they aren’t going to turn into turtles. The Browns will only really open things up later on, and if they’re down by more than eight points, so with that in mind, it lets us build for various scenarios smartly. 

Potential Scenarios
  • If you have Chubb at captain, you probably don’t want much of the Browns passing attack, because if Chubb hits, he’s really sucking up a lot of the offensive production. Amari and Chubb have hit together, but I would use a rule that says something like “if Chubb is captain, at most 2 of Brissett & all the Browns pass catchers.”
  • If running Joe Mixon at captain, I would apply a negative boost to Chubb, because Mixon smashing implies either a lot of fortunate touchdown variance (irrelevant for Chubb) or, extra work because the Bengals are way out in front (bad for Chubb).
  • As always, onslaught builds are viable. I don’t think I will run Cleveland onslaughts here but from a game theory perspective, I doubt many others will either. They’re not bad, I just want to approach this one differently. I think Cincinnati onslaughts are very much in play as the much better on-paper team against a somewhat one-dimensional offense.
Cash Games

In cash games, my player pool is literally all the Bengals (they’re all underpriced except maybe Hurst and Mixon) and then I think Chubb is viable. Bryant and DPJ are viable at their prices, the kickers are always in play, and then D’Ernest Johnson would be awesome if Hunt is absent. 

Tournaments

In tournaments, my favorite captains are Chubb, Mixon, Amari, and Boyd. Higgins is the “best” on-paper captain but I just expect him to be massively owned, so I’ll be underweight there due to the volatility of pass catchers and the high ownership.


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