After a disappointing 2023 season, the Vikings are projected to finish last in an improving NFC North. Despite making changes at the quarterback and running back positions, they still have a handful of great offensive players. The defense is undergoing a partial rebuild but looks to improve by obtaining players who fit Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores’s system.
The Vikings parted ways with QB Kirk Cousins, and it was a foregone conclusion that they would draft a QB with their number 1 pick to replace him. Instead of throwing their rookie quarterback to the wolves, they decided to sign a one-year deal with Darnold to bridge the gap. The Viking brass has claimed that they would like Darnold to be the opening-day starter and ride with him if he played well. Even though Darnold has struggled for most of his career, there is a belief that he could succeed in Minnesota because the Vikings have outstanding weapons and a solid pass-blocking offensive line, luxuries Darnold has not had before. As for fantasy, Darnold is off the radar as many expect rookie QB JJ McCarthy to get a shot sooner rather than later. Plus, people don’t trust Darnold despite the weapons he has. Projecting his relevance is extremely difficult, but he is worth a late-round Best Ball flyer as he, as mentioned, is in a great spot. He has little to no value in redraft leagues and is a streaming QB option only.
The Vikings traded up to 10th in this year’s draft to select McCarthy. By all accounts, he has a solid arm with great accuracy. He can extend plays with his legs and run for a much-needed first down. The knock is that he was limited by a very conservative Michigan offense that preferred to run the football. There are some questions about whether he can be that guy who can lead a passing offense. The Vikings will give him as much time as needed, but I think they would like to see what he has sooner rather than later. The media has reported that the Vikings would be content if Darnold played well enough that McCarthy would sit and be mentored for an entire season. I find that difficult to believe, and I think it would set the team back if they did not see him have significant snaps. As for fantasy, he is also a Best Ball late-round flyer only. Although there are question marks, the Vikings have too many weapons for him not to put up fantasy numbers.
He is the prototype receiver who just became the highest-paid receiver in football by signing a 4-year, $140 million deal. He can beat you in so many ways but is known for his ability to get open and to go up and get the ball. He is a top-eight fantasy pick and would be top-five if not for the uncertainty about how well the quarterbacks will play. I am not worried; he was putting up numbers with QB Nick Mullens. HC Kevin O’Connell can scheme him open. If he is healthy, he should reach 100 catches, 1,500 yards, and double-digit touchdowns.
Addison had an excellent rookie season with 70 catches for 911 yards and 10 touchdowns. I worry that this will be a feat that will be difficult to duplicate. I don’t blame Addison, as I think he is a better player than his numbers will be. I think he will be the player who suffers the most because of the QB situation. One must figure out that Jefferson is going to be the go-to target, especially on third down. Plus, either QB will throw to whoever is playing TE and the running backs out of the backfield. Addison will benefit early on, with TE T.J. Hockenson expecting to miss the regular season’s first 4-6 weeks. But after he returns, how limited will his production be? He is projected as a late 7th to early 8th-round fantasy pick, and I think it may be better to take a chance on Packer WR Christian Watson or even Carolina’s WR Diontae Johnson in that spot. I believe Addison settles into the 700-yard receiving range and will most likely not reach 10 touchdowns this season.
The Vikings were missing a spark at RB for most of the 2023 season. RB Alexander Mattison was ineffective and was not re-signed. Ty Chandler showed flashes, but I don’t think they wanted him to handle 20-plus touches week after week. Once Jones became available, it was a no-brainer for the Vikings to fill their running back need. He can do it all: run inside, run outside, and catch passes out of the backfield. He averaged over 20 fantasy points over his last five games, including the playoffs. His only knock is staying on the field, as he missed six games last season. He should have opportunities to shine in this offense, but there are some question marks. The Vikings run blocking has been suspect, especially against physical fronts. Can they provide the running lanes that he was accustomed to in Green Bay? Also, he turns 30 during the season, and I know the team still likes Chandler. Will they limit his touches to keep him fresh and to keep Chandler involved? I can see a 60-40-time share. My advice is not to draft Jones at his ADP; draft Raiders RB Zamir White or Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson instead.
Hockenson tore his ACL and MCL in week 16 and is not expected to be ready for the start of the regular season. As of now, there is only speculation on what his timetable to return truly is. I have heard rumors that it could be mid-October or mid-November. What if the Vikings are 2-8? Do they just sit him down until the 2025 season? His status means a lot for fantasy because he is a top-five type of tight end. Plus, he will factor into other players as well. His return really boosts up the value of whoever is starting at quarterback, mainly McCarthy. Also, his return would surely take targets away from the receivers, mainly Addison. And if he doesn’t return, Addison could be an 8th-round steal. We should hear more about his status the closer the season gets here. If he gets a solid mid-October timeline, then an early 11th-round pick is warranted. If it’s later, then he is a pass, and WR Jordan Addison’s stock will rise.
Despite the last-place outlook, there is a chance that the Vikings can surprise. If they get solid quarterback play, then they can compete with anyone. Their defense should bend but not break. It may be a little leaky vs. the run, but they have the speed rush players to come after the quarterback, especially on third down. As for fantasy, outside of Jefferson, they are difficult to project. They are probably best for Best Ball leagues until we get close to the start of the season.
