Mike’s Thanksgiving Player Grid 12.23

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

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The Format

My “Player Grid” for the Thanksgiving slate will take the format of my usual “Afternoon Only” article that I do every Sunday. A full-fledged Player Grid just didn’t feel like the right way to try to break down this slate with only three games on it and such a limited player pool to begin with. Rather, this slate very closely resembles what we see every Sunday with only three to four games in the late window. The added caveat on Thanksgiving is that we get time between each game to learn from what has happened already and the ownerships that have flipped over.

QB Strategy ::

• Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average quarterbacks obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:
  • Dak Prescott has been on an absolute tear recently and now faces possibly the worst pass defense in the league on a short week. The Commanders just got torched by Tommy DeVito. Dak is not a guarantee to end up as the “optimal” QB, but regardless of ownership, he is a terrific play.
  • Brock Purdy and Jared Goff are the other two quarterbacks of the “favorites” on the slate and are likely to carry the next two highest ownerships after Dak. Goff has the better “matchup” while Purdy is coming off the huge game and has more playmakers that can do the work for him. 
  • Jordan Love and Sam Howell are pretty interesting GPP options on the short slate.
  • It’s hard to trust Geno Smith with a bum arm or Drew Lock against the 49ers. Stranger things have happened, but within the context of the slate and with the loose pricing I don’t think that whoever Seattle starts at QB is a very good play even at very low ownership. Even if they have a good game, the other spots on the slate feel strong enough and easy enough to find the salary that the “risk” probably won’t help you gain that much. 

My guess on final ownership::

• Dak Prescott – 35-50%
• Brock Purdy and Jared Goff – 12-20%
• Jordan Love, and Sam Howell – 6-12%
• Geno Smith – Sub-5%

Defense Strategy ::