Sunday, Feb 11th — Late
Bye Week:

Mike’s Player Grid 6.23

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will likely evolve as the season progresses but should provide a lot of value. Enjoy!!

The Core

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my Checking The Boxes course. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites, unless otherwise noted:

Running Back ::

There are stark differences this week in how pricing sets up between the sites (Fanduel and Draftkings), so I am going to list which RBs I prefer on each this week. The order of preference may change slightly before lock, but these are the pools I’ll primarily be looking to use on each site::

  • Raheem Mostert – The best offense in football facing the worst run defense in football while the Dolphins will be without two of their top three RBs leaving Mostert in a clear lead role. Not a lot to dissect here, Mostert is a terrific play whose Draftkings price is very affordable. The biggest “risk” is probably the Dolphins getting out to a huge early lead where Miami is able to protect him for half the game.
  • Kenneth Walker – Walker has handled 17 or more opportunities in every game this year and his offensive line is now healthier than it has been all year in a matchup against a bottom-3 run defense by most metrics.
  • Kyren Williams – Williams is seeing over 80% of the RB work for the team with the second-highest implied total on the slate. Arizona’s defense has been exposed in consecutive weeks and Williams has an affordable price.
  • Alvin Kamara – Talent, volume, and matchup are terrific for Kamara. The potential game environment isn’t great with a game total of only 43, but there are only two games on this slate with totals over 45, so I’m not as worried about that as I might normally be.
  • Chuba Hubbard – Very cheap and in a workhorse role. Hubbard has two or more targets in every game this season in addition to the 24 targets of Miles Sanders. Hubbard has also been surprisingly efficient this season and this game could get opened up in a hurry. Hubbard should have every opportunity to get 80-100 yards from scrimmage with a few catches and the potential to score a touchdown simply by being on the field so much.
  • D’Onta Foreman – Foreman is a talented running back who was very good last year. He should handle the overwhelming majority of backfield work for the Bears in a non-prohibitive matchup at a very low price tag.
  • Travis Etienne – Etienne has been terrific this season and is seizing control of the backfield. This offense is starting to hit its stride and is coming off a huge win over the Bills and heading into their bye week. The Colts are not an imposing run defense and Etienne has one of the best workloads in the league.
  • Bijan Robinson – I still believe in Robinson as a stand-out talent and he is now priced in the middle tier of his position on the site. Bijan is simply too good to not have a game with 2+ touchdowns eventually and what better time for it than against a team giving up 30+ points every week?
  • D’Andre Swift – An elite talent with a good matchup and the Eagles offense is due for some positive TD regression soon. The Jets defense is pretty beat up right now and this could be the spot where Swift really takes advantage of his bell cow role for the Philadelphia offense. 
  • Joe Mixon – Mixon is the bell cow for a very good offense in a good matchup. I don’t dislike him on Draftkings, but the salary savings on that site from Mixon to Hubbard and Foreman is significantly more than what you save on Fanduel. He’s seeing enough volume and the offense is good enough that he should have some TDs coming soon (remember his 5 TD game last year?), so given the scoring settings he’s a guy I’m fine banking on here.
  • David Montgomery – In what is expected to be a very competitive game, Montgomery should be heavily involved both on the ground and in the passing game. He has 6 TDs through four games and is a good bet for one or two more this week. 
  • Chris Brooks // Salvon Ahmed – Fanduel’s minimum price for running backs was $4,500 for many years but this year they changed it to $4,000. Both of these backs are priced below the old minimum and it’s very likely that one of them gets extensive work in a blowout. Ahmed entered the season ahead of Brooks but was a healthy scratch last week in favor of Brooks who now appears to have the upper hand. Look for reports out of Miami heading into the game, but these price tags are incredibly low and I can’t imagine the Dolphins give Mostert more carries than they have to as they face the Eagles next week.

Tight End :: 


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