Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests
Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will likely evolve as the season progresses but should provide a lot of value. Enjoy!!
This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my Checking The Boxes course. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites, unless otherwise noted:
ARSB is not going to play and Jahmyr Gibbs pulled his hamstring on Friday at practice. This is an elite matchup and Montgomery gets a ton of work near the goal line.
This offense is insane and that’s especially true in soft matchups. It is likely that this backfield combines for 30+ points with a very good shot at 40, it’s just a matter of how those points get distributed. Mostert seems likely to catch more passes while Achane gets more red zone work. Both can score from distance as well but the Giants may give them a lot of short fields. I have some slight concern that if there is a blowout, the Dolphins could turn to Salvon Ahmed relatively early to conserve their dynamic duo. I would expect Achane to end up with lower-than-projected ownership while Mostert ends up higher than expected, as everyone will look at those projections and many people will take the obvious low-hanging fruit of “same backfield, same price, one at a third the ownership of the other.” I’d expect the result is it ends up much closer in ownership when the cards flip over.
An elite talent in a fruitful game environment with a good matchup. Very hard to see him “failing” and a 30-pointer is very much in play.
Has at least four receptions in every game so far. Elite matchup and his team has been struggling the last two weeks so it feels like he’s going to be the guy they look to as the engine of their offense. Zero touchdowns on 53 carries this season changes soon and he has yet to break a long one. Bijan seems like he could really separate at the RB position given the state of this slate without Ekeler, Pollard, CMC, and Jacobs. Ultimately, however, how profitable his lineups are will hinge on how he stacks up against the similarly priced WRs.
Terrific matchup at home and has a reasonable price tag. Appears to be in store for modest ownership and while he’s not a guy I usually play, he is a guy who has multi-touchdown upside.
Kelce seems due for a multi-TD game sooner rather than later. The other guys have done enough recently to where defenses have to account for them. Those things are often cyclical and Kelce should benefit now, especially if the Vikings blitz and leave him in 1-on-1 situations often.
Last year the Lions played a game around this time of year without Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift. TJ Hockenson and Josh Reynolds had massive games. This year LaPorta is in that role and while it feels awkward paying his elevated price tag for a rookie, he seems like he’s in a terrific spot.
His usage and production haven’t been great but he’s an every-down player for a team that could put up 40 points any given week. I think he’s talented and I don’t think his early season production holds. I’ll be playing him.
My cognitive biases won’t let me play Zach Ertz over Kyle Pitts. If looking for a cheap tight end, Pitts is my lean but I’d imagine there are a lot of others who will think the same. All jokes aside, Ertz is in play along with Tyler Conklin. Stacking the position with your QB is never a bad decision if you’re stuck on what to do.
If you have a television and a pair of eyes, I don’t need to explain.
Kirk Cousins in a marquee matchup where he might fall behind and be heavily pressured. Chiefs are reasonably priced and should be low-owned.
The Lions will be without and/or missing several key offensive players. Carolina’s defense isn’t great, but it isn’t as bad as advertised either. They held the Vikings to 14 offensive points just last week and are my favorite cheap defense.
