Mike’s Player Grid 13.23

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

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Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will likely evolve as the season progresses but should provide a lot of value. Enjoy!!

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The Core

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my Checking The Boxes course. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites, unless otherwise noted:

Running Back ::

Important to start this section by talking about Zack Moss, who will likely be near or above 50% ownership in most contests. Moss is not a terrible play by any means. His workload at that price is impossible to ignore and even an “OK” game can keep you on track to win a tournament. That being said, the Titans defense is very good against the run and the Titans have played far better at home this year and their games rank last in combined plays per game. There are paths to the game disappointing and Moss only scoring 8 to 14 points. In that scenario, how do we separate? My Running Back pool this week will focus on players with explosive ceilings. Not just guys in good spots, but those who I think can drop 30 and dust off Moss even if he has a solid game.

Tier 1

• Raheem Mostert – While everyone focuses on the Dolphins passing attack and their elite spot along with the return of De’Von Achane, Mostert is in a terrific spot. A home favorite on the team with the highest implied total of the week. The Commanders defense is “better” at defending the run than the pass, but the Dolphins could also just easily drop 40+ and Mostert is the lead back.
• Bijan Robinson – Bijan finally had his breakout game but his price barely moved. An elite talent who I believe is going to go on a tear down the stretch. He was second on the team in targets last week, had a huge bump in red zone usage coming out of the team’s bye week, and touched the ball on 5 of their first 7 plays to start the game. 
• Jahmyr Gibbs – The Saints defense is beat up pretty badly and has been torched by some running backs recently, including Bijan just last week. This game should be up in pace and Gibbs is the explosive type of back who can post a separator score.
• Derrick Henry – The “Big Dog” isn’t what he once was, but he could be as good once as he ever was. From the perspective described at the start of the section, Henry fits the mold perfectly. Him breaking off a couple of big runs and dominating the game is the clearest path to the Colts offense failing and Moss posting a mediocre score.

tier 2

• Jaylen Warren – Explosive back who has a similar skill set to Kyren Williams, who just destroyed the Arizona defense. Pittsburgh’s offense also has the arrow pointing up right now.
• Christian McCaffrey – It’s CMC.
• Rachaad White – One of the best workloads in the league and facing one of the league’s worst run defenses.
• De’Von Achane – Slightly scary play after he had a dud in his last comeback game, but fits the mold of a huge upside and explosive player. One of him or Mostert should have a big game here.

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