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Mike’s Player Grid 11.22

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests


Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will likely evolve as the season progresses but should provide a lot of value. Enjoy!!


The Core

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites unless otherwise noted:

Running Back ::
Saquon Barkley

Nothing too crazy to explain here. Incredible talent and workload, great matchup. Comes at a high salary but deservedly so. The only “knock” on Saquon is that we really haven’t seen much of a ceiling from him since Week 1. My take on that is that with his workload and talent, the ceiling will almost certainly show at some point…..rather than some people who are taking it to mean he doesn’t have much ceiling anymore.

Dalvin Cook

Dalvin has been playing 80%+ of the snaps and handling almost all of the RB work over the last four games. He now faces a Cowboys defense that has given up 200+ rushing yards in the best game environment of the week. Somehow, Dalvin is projecting for very modest ownership which is an added bonus.

David Montgomery

Khalil Herbert is on the IR, leaving Montgomery as the clear lead back on a Bears offense that is rapidly ascending. We’ve seen this movie before, with Montgomery emerging down the stretch of the last two seasons as well, and we’ve also seen lead running backs playing next to QBs who present huge threats on the ground benefit greatly. Monty is about $1k underpriced for his role and matchup this week.

Tony Pollard

Pollard has been every bit the stud I expected him to be in a lead role. The team is sticking with Ezekiel Elliott and saying all the right things, but Pollard is clearly the better option at this point. My hope is that Elliott is active, which it sounds like he will be, or if he’s going to be inactive that it is a late “surprise”. If active, I think Pollard has earned a big role and will be fed the ball in high-leverage spots like this game. Elliott active but limited is my anticipation, with Pollard ending up in a great matchup and game environment with a great ceiling at very low ownership.

Jonathan Taylor

Taylor has a great matchup on the ground, a coach who wants to feed him relentlessly, and is finally healthy. This is around the time last season that JT started going nuts and breaking slates.

SIDE NOTES::

  • Kenyan Drake – In the game before the Ravens bye week, Drake handled 26 touches in a great performance against the Saints. This week, the Ravens are 13-point favorites as they host a Panthers team that gave up 5 touchdowns to Joe Mixon just two weeks ago. Gus Edwards may return this week, but even if he does he will likely be eased into action after JK Dobbins had his own setbacks in returning from a torn ACL. My guess is that Edwards is used sparingly or is a last-minute inactive, in either case, Drake is likely to go almost completely overlooked in an outstanding spot.
  • Josh Jacobs I was higher on Jacobs earlier in the week but he is on a team projected to score under 20 points, making him fragile at his price tag. Jacobs also carries some extra risk due to the uncertainty around Davante Adams due to his abdomen injury – we saw the Raiders offense completely tank against the Saints the last time Adams had a week of rough practices while dealing with a physical ailment. I likely won’t end up going here at this point but left him in the Grid to share those thoughts on why.
  • BONUS:: If you are looking to play more expensive QB and WRs from specific game environments, here are a couple low priced RBs who I see realistic chances of game environments that allow them to get 15-18 points while opening things up for the rest of your roster::
    • Jaylen Warren
    • Tyler Allgeier
    • Antonio Gibson/Brian Robinson
    • Michael Carter
Tight End ::

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