El Magico is a high-stakes tournament champion who focuses on single-entry/three-entry max // small-field play
Through this article, I will be highlighting a small player pool that is composed of players that rank high in my proprietary model. There are several factors this model takes into consideration such as: DVP (Defense vs Position), OL/DL matchup, WR/CB matchup, game pace, Vegas totals, target share, value score, air yard opportunities and a few secret sauce metrics I can’t discuss further. As we move forward, I will do my best to point out some of the higher-ranked players for the OWS community to take into consideration as part of their own research. When it comes to game selection, I would encourage this player pool to be used in single entry, 3-Max smaller field tournaments.
Oh Boy! This is scary, but after all, it’s Halloween weekend, and here comes Sam Darnold topping the MMM model. Sure sounds scary to push the button on Darnold, but the matchup isn’t scary, and we are ready to pull some tricks this weekend. The Falcons offense keeps improving, yet their defense has remained their weak link. This dome game will be fast-paced and provide ample scoring opportunities for both teams as Falcons games are averaging the third-most plays per game and the fourth-most points per game in the NFL. I am looking for a vintage Sam Darnold to re-emerge in this matchup, and by vintage, I mean from four weeks ago.
Consideration: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Carson Wentz
I will be honest, I have been extremely wary of playing Swift throughout the season, including best ball drafts, and that has been a mistake. That may change this week. It is hard to deny Swift’s historic usage thus far. Swift seems to be gaining control of this backfield and now faces an extremely favorable matchup, and this feels like a great play but the field tends to agree; hence, he will be highly owned this weekend but this could be some tasty chalk I don’t mind eating.
Mixon enters one of the most favorable matchups to running backs in the NFL, and on top of that, the Bengals carry one of the highest implied totals in the slate vs a Jets team that is falling apart as we speak (no Zach Wilson, no Corey Davis). This should be a game where the Bengals sit back and run run run the ball all day, and Mixon is our guy. A quick note from the “NFL Edge”: “the Jets are attackable on the ground (27th in DVOA) and through the air (28th in DVOA).”
Consideration: Darrell Henderson, Chubba Hubbard
The spring is coiling up for DJ Moore as he keeps racking up targets and air yards over the last few tough outings for the Panthers offense. This is the get-well spot, and Moore is topping the model due to several key metrics such as air yards, target share, game pace, and his individual metrics vs the Falcons pass defense. I feel very good about Moore this week and the model agrees.
This could be a game that goes underlooked this week but there are several plays here that could provide slate winning scores and Pittman could be in line for such. The Titans corners do not match up well vs big-bodied Michael Pittman, and we have to mention that their already bottom-of-the-barrel secondary is extremely banged up. The Titans offense should keep rolling, forcing the Colts to try and keep up by turning to the passing game through an improving Carson Wentz and his alpha receiver Michael Pittman.
Consideration: Calvin Ridley, Deebo Samuel, Mike Williams
Goedert saw elite usage last week in the post-Zach Ertz era in Philadelphia. Such usage should continue into this matchup vs the Lions, who keep finding ways to keep games competitive, like they did last week vs the Rams, forcing the Eagles to keep their foot on the gas. This game should remain competitive throughout, and the fireworks should be there.
Consideration: Tyler Higbee, Dan Arnold
Sam Darnold / DJ Moore / Calvin Ridley or Kyle Pitts