Prediction: Finishes as QB1 in leagues with four points per TD pass
Over the the past month, Richardson is being drafted as the QB6 in most formats and on NFFC he has an ADP of 66. We expect him to be good, even great, but to predict him to be the number one QB over Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Lamar and Stroud is pretty damn bold. I’m not just being bold for the sake of being bold, though.
In leagues where it’s only four points per TD pass, I believe that Richardson can finish as the number 1 QB in fantasy football. He has very underrated weapons around him in Indy, and I foresee a situation in which he leads all QBs in rushing yards and rushing TDs. In a league where it’s four points per pass TD and six for rushing, that will start to add up quickly, and the rushing yards will boost him as well. Think about the three other rushing QBs that are going in the top five.
Allen has his worst receivers in years, and that could hurt the Bills offense overall, especially in red zone trips. Lamar now has Derrick Henry, who is going to vulture TDs from him in the red zone, and the same can be said about Hurts, who now has Saquon. This opens the door in a big way for Richardson, who in less than 1/4 of the season last year had four rushing TDs and 136 rush yards. There’s a real chance that if he plays a full season, Richardson rushes for 15 TDs and rushes for over 600 yards. If you pair that with 3,500 passing yards and 20+ TD passes, you have a really good shot at seeing him be QB1.
Prediction: Finishes the season with double-digit TDs
I don’t have Zeke in any basic re-draft leagues this season. However, I did grab him in a few best-ball formats. The reason is simple. We don’t know who will be RB1 in Dallas, and even if it is Zeke, he is going to average under four yards per carry.
On a week-to-week basis, he isn’t worth putting in your starting lineup, but there are going to be weeks where he scores multiple TDs, and in your best ball formats, that’s going to help. The Cowboys should score plenty of points and move the ball down the field with regularity, and when they get inside the red zone, Zeke is going to eat. The biggest issue with the Cowboys offense last season was red zone efficiency, especially when running the football, and that’s one area of Zeke’s game that is still a strong suit.
He’s going to get carries in the red zone and even more so in goal-to-go situations, but Zeke is also a proficient pass catcher, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if he ended up with three or four receiving TDs this season, too. If you don’t think that Zeke can rush for six to eight TDs in this offense, then you’re fooling yourselves. So, if you do the math, that total will be in the double digits, and I think he will have at least three games this year with multiple TDs.
Prediction: Finishes the season with 110 catches, 1500 yards, 10 TD
Wilson has been good in his first couple of NFL seasons, and when you consider how bad his QB play has been, it’s actually surprising that he was able to put up back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons.
He’s had good years, but he hasn’t had that breakout season where he is elite and wins you a fantasy championship. His best receiving total was in 2022 when he had 1103 yards, and he also had his career-best four receiving TDs that year. Last year, his yards and TDs dipped a bit, but he set a career-high with 95 receptions.
Now, if Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy in 2024, Wilson will finally have good QB play, maybe even great QB play if Rodgers has anything left in the tank. All of his numbers are going to be career-best if he plays a full year. Saying that isn’t what is bold here, though, and suggesting he add another 15 receptions to his career high isn’t too bold either. Where things do get bold, though, is suggesting he goes from 1103 receiving yards as a career-best to 1,500 and four TDs as a career-best to 10+ TDs. These are all within the realm of possibility, with Aaron Rodgers getting him the football.
