Late Swap 8.23

StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

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Outlook – Late Games:

Week 8 offers us a full 13 game slate for only the second time all season. With several high-powered offenses in good spots, the biggest takeaway compared to the previous two weeks is that we can expect twice the number of 30-point scorers this week. This should lead to a higher score (likely close to 250 points) being required to take down a larger tournament. More on this below, but several of the most popular plays don’t have 5x salary multipliers as part of their realistic range of outcomes, and thus I would expect a larger than normal portion of the field to be dead for first before the games even kick-off. Let’s talk about how we can exploit this error below.

Important Early Outcomes to Watch:

• Mid-priced RBs; specifically, Alvin Kamara, Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson – Projection models have these as the best on paper values at RB, and as such, each is likely to garner around 20% ownership. Since half the field is likely to roster one (or more) of these RBs, accounting for how they do is critical.
• Cheap TEs – This may not stand out as an important outcome, however, what might be the worst chalk of the entire season, Trey McBride is projecting as one of the two highest owned players on the entire slate at $2,800. Since he’s playing late, and we know a vast majority of the field doesn’t late swap, how other pay down TEs perform is important to note.
• Slate Breakers, such as Ja’Marr Chase’s 55.2 DK point performance in week 5.

Price Range Breakdowns (Late Games):

$7,000 and up: