Late Swap 5.23

StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

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Outlook – Late Games:

Week 5 offers us one of the smallest main slates of the season, with just 10 games, as the Bills and Jags are in London coinciding with the start of bye weeks. The reduced slate size inherently leads to condensed ownership as there simply aren’t as many options to choose from. This is obvious on two or three game slates, however, a reduction from 12 games down to 10 is a 17% decrease in viable options at both the QB and TE positions (from 24 to 20).

Four games fall into the late window this week and carry some of the highest projected ownership, including six of the eight highest individual team totals on the slate. The two outlier teams of the afternoon games (the Cardinals and Jets), feature Garrett Wilson and Marquise Brown (both projected as top 6 WRs in overall ownership), as well as Breece Hall and Zack Ertz, who also project for double-digit ownership. And this isn’t even mentioning teams full of potential fantasy goodness on the late slate like the Chiefs, Eagles, Vikings, Bengals, and Rams. This will likely put a high emphasis on the ability to pivot/swap as tournament-winning scores of the afternoon only slate (4 games) have a chance to compete with the tournament-winning scores of the full 10 game slate once everything is said and done.

Important Early Outcomes to Watch:

• David Montgomery & Jahmyr Gibbs (if active) – The Lions are 10-point home favorites and the Panthers have been gashed on the ground. Detroit is also likely to be without alpha WR Amon-Ra St Brown. This should lead to 25+ rushing attempts between the pairing who are likely to carry 25% or more combined ownership.
• Dolphins vs Giants – Featuring several highly owned pieces (Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane, and Wan’Dale Robinson) in the best on-paper game environment of the early slate. The most intriguing to me is Robinson, who is projecting around 20% at min salary ($3,000). If he puts up 20 points, he’s almost certainly going to be on winning lineups.
• Slate Breakers such as Tyreek Hill’s 47.5 DK point performance in week 1. 

Price Range Breakdowns (Late Games):

$7,100 and up: