Sunday, Feb 11th — Late
Bye Week:
Bears
Bengals
Bills
Broncos
Browns
Buccaneers
Cardinals
Chargers
Colts
Commanders
Cowboys
Dolphins
Eagles
Falcons
Giants
Jaguars
Jets
Lions
Packers
Panthers
Patriots
Raiders
Rams
Ravens
Saints
Seahawks
Steelers
Texans
Titans
Vikings

Late Swap 3.23

StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

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Outlook – Late Games:

Only three games (out of twelve) fall in the late window, thanks in part to two MNF games again this week. While on the surface that might seem to lessen the importance of late swap consideration, this slate actually sets up quite the opposite.

Important Early Outcomes to Watch:
  • No way to get around it, the key early outcome to monitor is the Vikings/Chargers game. Four of the five highest projected owned players (Justin Jefferson, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and Joshua Kelley) are part of the game and it features the highest total of the week. If any of the four aforementioned players put up a had to have it score, and your roster doesn’t have them, you are likely dead for first place. Along with the skill position players mentioned above, more than 25% of the field will (also) be playing Cousins or Herbert. However, what makes this slate unique in that sense is that this game is likely to be finished by the time the two 4:25 games kick off. That’s important because while it will carry the highest combined ownership (by a wide margin), it does not feature either of the top two teams in terms of Vegas implied team totals – a distinction held by the Chiefs and the Cowboys respectively. More on this below, but I recommend including one or two roster spots (preferably including the flex) on every roster built for late game players.
  • Tyreek Hill – a true potential slate-braker and is likely to carry 15-20% ownership.
  • Mid-priced RBs ($4,800 – $6,000) – specifically Zack Moss, Jerome Ford, Raheem Mostert, Joshua Kelly, and Alexander Mattison. The field wants to pay up for the likes of Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Tony Pollard, and Keenan Allen and this is leading to a lot of congregation on the mid-tier RB range this week.
  • “Slate Breakers” such as Tyreek Hill’s 47.5 DK point performance in week 1.
Late Swap Notes:

Six skill position players in the late games are projected for double digit ownership, and none are WRs: Pollard, Pacheco, Sanders, Walker III, Travis Kelce, and Zach Ertz. With both the Cowboys and Chiefs implied for four TDs each, this is a great spot to leverage the confidence and certainty the field is showing on how these teams will score.

As mentioned above, I would make a point to include at least one roster spot from these late games on every roster.

Price Range Breakdowns (Late Games):

$7,000 and up:

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