StatATL is an OWS Fam grad who had multiple tournament wins last season that included a large field showdown for MNF and a $50,000 SE win. This season Billy has been hammering short slates and utilizing late swap. In this article, he’ll help you take advantage of late swap.
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Four of the twelve total games fall into the late window this weekend, including two of the top three game environments based on Vegas implied totals (KC at CIN and LAC at LV). I would expect high ownership on several players from those games, with Josh Jacobs to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate after last week’s 50+ point outburst.
Overall, this week’s chalk construction should vary from previous weeks as the value options at RB aren’t as appealing, with only Dameon Pierce projecting for double-digit ownership below $6k. More value could open up in Brian Robinson or Jaylen Warren if Antonio Gibson or Najee Harris were to miss (both questionable at the time of this writing). QB ownership is always less concentrated, and this week I expect both QBs from JAX at DET to be popular due to the high game total and affordability they both offer. That said, if your main bet/stack on a roster is from the early games, such as the aforementioned JAX/DET matchup, I suggest a construction with at least 3, preferably 4 pieces (which can include DST) saved for the afternoon games. This will allow you to block the popular pieces if your early plays smash or get contrarian with some of the options outlined below if your roster needs to play catch up to get over the cash line.
$7,000 and up:
$6,000 – $7,000:
$5,000 – $5,900:
Cincy is my favorite stack to build around in the late window this week, with several value pieces in play from both sides. A full game stack (3 Bengals, 2 Chiefs) is my personal preference if building around these two high-powered offenses.
If building a stack centered around one of the early games, such as Lawrence/Jags or Pickett/Steelers, remember to account for the two highest games on the slate in the afternoon window (KC at CIN and LAC at LV) by leaving some flexibility to make pivots. If your early bets flounder, I’d suggest moving to lower-owned contrarian plays in these games, such as Mixon, Pacheco, MVS, Adams, or Palmer. If your early stacks smash, look to block the popular plays by rostering/pivoting to some combination of Jacobs, Ekeler, and Walker at RB/Flex, and Moreau or Kelce in the TE slot.
As always, keep an eye on late breaking news and remember to make sure your latest starting skill position player is in the FLEX spot.
I hope to see you and your OWS avatar at the top of a leaderboard this week!