Late Swap 13.22

StatATL is an OWS Fam grad who had multiple tournament wins last season that included a large field showdown for MNF and a $50,000 SE win. This season Billy has been hammering short slates and utilizing late swap. In this article, he’ll help you take advantage of late swap.

Need more late swap education? Read this free educational article on Late Swap

Outlook – Late Games:

Four of the twelve total games fall into the late window this weekend, including two of the top three game environments based on Vegas implied totals (KC at CIN and LAC at LV). I would expect high ownership on several players from those games, with Josh Jacobs to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate after last week’s 50+ point outburst.

Overall, this week’s chalk construction should vary from previous weeks as the value options at RB aren’t as appealing, with only Dameon Pierce projecting for double-digit ownership below $6k. More value could open up in Brian Robinson or Jaylen Warren if Antonio Gibson or Najee Harris were to miss (both questionable at the time of this writing). QB ownership is always less concentrated, and this week I expect both QBs from JAX at DET to be popular due to the high game total and affordability they both offer. That said, if your main bet/stack on a roster is from the early games, such as the aforementioned JAX/DET matchup, I suggest a construction with at least 3, preferably 4 pieces (which can include DST) saved for the afternoon games. This will allow you to block the popular pieces if your early plays smash or get contrarian with some of the options outlined below if your roster needs to play catch up to get over the cash line.

Important Early Outcomes to Watch:

• Jaguars and Lions skill position players, specifically Amon-Ra St. Brown, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Travis Etienne. All project to be in the top ten in overall ownership. 

• “Slate Breakers” – unexpected monster performances like Josh Jacobs a week ago

Price Range Breakdowns (Late Games):

$7,000 and up:

• Tyreek Hill – Most expensive player on the slate in a tough on paper matchup, but as we’ve explored on OWS before, the matchup doesn’t take away from the ceiling. I would only use him in a Tua build, but a good way to get contrarian if your early plays flop as he’s projecting for single-digit ownership and can break the slate.

• Adams / Jacobs – Basically cut and paste from the past few weeks. Over the last month, Adams and Jacobs have combined for an absurd 68% of the offense’s usage (targets plus carries). Renfrow and Waller are both on IR, and Adams currently projects for only 13% ownership, despite exceeding 30 DK points in 3 of his past 4 games.

• Joe Mixon – Most of the field will build around the TDs in the KC/CIN game coming through the air. Mixon has shown 50 point upside this season.

$6,000 – $7,000:

• Metcalf / Lockett – Seattle is one of the more concentrated offenses in the league with a team total of 24 points. Both receivers are projected for single-digit ownership and are strong options to consider if playing catch up after the early games.

$5,000 – $5,900:

• Isiah Pacheco – Pacheco offers some of the largest leverage on the slate as the field is certain that both the Bengals and Chiefs will score through the air. Pacheco is only projected for 3% ownership despite KC having the highest Vegas team total on the slate and Clyde Edwards-Helaire on IR.

• Joshua Palmer – Averaging 9.5 targets over his past five games and Mike Williams is out again. Projected at sub-5% ownership

Sub $5,000:

• Marquez Valdes-Scantling – Cheap exposure to the highest projected offense on the slate. He has put up 15 or more points in 3 of his past 7 games.

• Jauan Jennings – Coming off a season high 6 catch game, a strong consideration if needing a value play in the late window.

Defense:

• Seahawks ($3,600) – Priced up where they are likely not to gain too much steam despite taking on projected starter Bryce Perkins, slated to be making his second career start.

• 49ers ($3,100) – Should carry low ownership and have shown several times this season the ability to produce the top defensive score for the week.

Stacks/Construction:

Cincy is my favorite stack to build around in the late window this week, with several value pieces in play from both sides. A full game stack (3 Bengals, 2 Chiefs) is my personal preference if building around these two high-powered offenses.

If building a stack centered around one of the early games, such as Lawrence/Jags or Pickett/Steelers, remember to account for the two highest games on the slate in the afternoon window (KC at CIN and LAC at LV) by leaving some flexibility to make pivots. If your early bets flounder, I’d suggest moving to lower-owned contrarian plays in these games, such as Mixon, Pacheco, MVS, Adams, or Palmer. If your early stacks smash, look to block the popular plays by rostering/pivoting to some combination of Jacobs, Ekeler, and Walker at RB/Flex, and Moreau or Kelce in the TE slot. 

As always, keep an eye on late breaking news and remember to make sure your latest starting skill position player is in the FLEX spot.

I hope to see you and your OWS avatar at the top of a leaderboard this week!