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Week 12 offers us a 10-game main slate where the DK interns may have overseen the pricing as several players saw significant price cuts for no apparent reason – see Kareem Hunt, priced $1,000 less than last week in one of the best on-paper matchups. From a macro perspective, we are seeing total RB ownership come in around 250%, meaning most rosters are likely to play an RB in flex again this week, a trend we’ve seen happening more and more in 2024. We’ll discuss how we can leverage that knowledge more below with two of the three best (on paper) games of the day coming in the afternoon window.
De’Von Achane – The field is expressing certainty that the Dolphins scoring is going to flow through Achane, and he is projecting for over 30% ownership, one of the two highest on the slate (with Kareem Hunt). Achane is fundamentally underpriced for his role in the Miami offense averaging 19 opportunities a game since the Dolphins Week 5 bye with 5.5 targets a game. In my opinion, he is the best on paper play of the slate.
Kareem Hunt – Similarly to Achane, Hunt is projecting over 30% ownership with Pacheco ruled out this week. Hunt is averaging 22 touches a game and Carolina has been gashed by opposing RBs this season. Like Achane, I think this chalk is “good chalk”, and warrants the high projected ownership.
Travis Kelce – The Chiefs have the second-highest team total on the slate and the field is expressing confidence that one (or both) of Kareem Hunt or Travis Kelce is going to succeed. Kelce is one of three TEs who can put up a had to have it score at the position (along with Brock Bowers and Trey McBride), and at 25% projected ownership, he’s a situation to monitor.
Detroit Lions – The Lions have the highest implied team total on the slate at 29, and while Detroit does tend to spread the ball around, we just saw last week how they can explode on offense. If the TDs once again flow through one or two of their primary players, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a Lion post a 30-point fantasy score once again.
Slate Breakers – Such as Ja’Marr Chase’s 58.4 DK point performance in week 10 or Taysom Hill’s 46.5 outburst last week.
