Late Swap 12.22
StatATL is an OWS Fam grad who had multiple tournament wins last season that included a large field showdown for MNF and a $50,000 SE win. This season Billy has been hammering short slates and utilizing late swap. In this article, he’ll help you take advantage of late swap.
Need more late swap education? Read this free educational article on Late Swap
Outlook – Late Games:
Four of the eleven games fall into the late window this weekend, which includes four of the top five teams in terms of Vegas implied team totals (KC, SF, LAC, SEA). I would expect heavy ownership on several players from those games, specifically Kenneth Walker and Josh Jacobs (if active) at RB, DeAndre Hopkins and Keenan Allen at WR, and the KC defense, who project as the 2nd highest owned overall on the slate. If you’ve read my articles before, you know how I feel about highly-owned defenses.
Overall, I would expect many rosters to feature at least one value RB from the early games (Murray, White, Perine, and Wilson), and due to these salary savings, the few pay up options at WR are likely to be higher owned than the probability is of them producing a slate breaking score. That said, if your main bet/stack on a roster is from the early games, I suggest a construction with at least 3, preferably 4 pieces (which can include DST) saved for the afternoon games. This will allow you to block the popular pieces if your early plays smash, or get contrarian with some of the options outlined below if your roster needs to play catch-up to get over the cash line.
Important Early Outcomes to Watch:
- Dolphins skill position players, specifically Jeff Wilson, as Miami has an implied total of over 30 points.
- Value RB plays, such as Latavious Murray, Rachaad White and Samaje Perine (along with Wilson).
- Mark Andrews – We have all three separators at the TE position on the slate (Andrews, Kelce, Kittle). If Andrews goes for 25+, you will likely want to pivot to Kelce/Kittle if you still have the TE slot open.
- “Slate Breakers” – unexpected monster performances like Mixon a couple weeks ago
Price Range Breakdowns (Late Games):
$7,000 and up:
- Christian McCaffrey – Most expensive player on the slate with a somewhat uncertain role but showed his 40+ point ceiling just three weeks ago. Has seen 20 or more opportunities in two of the past three games and is currently projected for single-digit ownership.
- Adams/Jacobs – Over the last 3 weeks, Adams and Jacobs have combined for an absurd 68% of the offense’s usage (targets plus carries). Renfrow and Waller are both on IR, so I don’t foresee this usage changing. Adams currently projects for only 16% ownership despite three straight games exceeding 30 DK points.
- Austin Ekeler – Feels like the obvious pay-up option at RB, but not currently projected for top-five ownership at the position. A strong leverage spot off of the value RB plays and I like him as part of a Chargers stack (more on this below).
$6,000 – $7,000:
- James Conner – Rondale Moore has been ruled out and while Hollywood Brown is likely to make his return, he could be eased in. Connor has seen back-to-back games of 19+ opportunities and is going up against a Chargers team that gave up 99 or more yards rushing to Isiah Pacheco, Tyler Allgeier, and Kenneth Walker in 3 of the past 4 weeks. If Brown is inactive, Conner is an even stronger play.
- Chris Olave – The Saints are likely to be playing from behind and Olave has entrenched himself as the alpha WR. The speedy wideout is only projected for 2% ownership against a 49ers team that gave up 100+ yards to Greg Dortch and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in two of the past four weeks.
$5,000 – $5,900:
- Isiah Pacheco – Along with Tua Tagovailoa, Pacheco offers the largest leverage play on the slate. The field is certain that both the Dolphins will score on the ground, (hence Jeff Wilson’s ownership), and that the Chiefs will score through the air. Pacheco is only projected for 4% ownership despite KC being a two-touchdown home favorite and Clyde Edwards-Helaire being on IR.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster – The Chiefs are projected for 29 points, Toney and Hardman have both been ruled out and JuJu is projected for 6% ownership. I feel like most weeks the Chiefs players go under-owned, and it appears that trend will continue this week. Can be paired with Pacheco and Mahomes as part of a Chiefs smash build.
- Van Jefferson – Chiefs are projected to win by two touchdowns and Cooper Kupp is on IR. This is simply an ownership play at sub-1%.
- Sky Moore – Coming off a career-high 6 target game, Toney and Hardman are both ruled out. Moore is min priced and likely won’t carry more than 2-5% ownership
- Seahawks ($3,300) – 7 or more DK points in every home game this year, including 13 or more in 50% of those games. Love this matchup if Jacobs misses for LV.
- Cardinals ($2,700) – Leverage off highly owned Chiefs DST ($2,800). 8 or more DK points in 5 of the past 8 games.
- 49ers ($4,000) – A pay-up to be contrarian play. 49ers are two-score home favorites and have shown several times this season they have the ability to be the had-to-have-it DST unit for the week.
- KC is my favorite stack to build around this week, and Mahomes and Kelce are both projecting for sub-15% ownership in a smash spot. Other great Chiefs stacking options are mentioned above as well.
- Herbert with two of Ekeler, Palmer, Allen, and Everett looks to be a solid contrarian build. Only Ekeler is carrying more than 15% ownership, and most rosters won’t have both him and Herbert. Hopkins is a natural bring back on these rosters as he projects to see double-digit targets.
As always, keep an eye on late breaking news and remember to make sure your latest starting skill position player is in the FLEX spot.
I hope to see you and your OWS avatar at the top of a leaderboard this week!