Late Swap 11.23

StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

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Outlook – Late Games:

Week 11 offers us an 11-game slate with only 3 late games. While four games have an implied point total of 46 or higher, the two highest players in terms of projected ownership (at the time of this writing) are TEs Trey McBride and Evan Engram. There isn’t a ton of obvious value this week, which will likely lead the field to double TE builds more frequently than most weeks. There is potential for late breaking news to open some value on the late slate – specifically around Tyler Lockett who didn’t practice all week. However, since we know the field seldom uses late swaps, being ready to take advantage of this may prove particularly useful this week.  

Important Early Outcomes to Watch:

• Texans and Cardinals – This game projects to have several of the highest owned players this week, including Trey McBride, Tank Dell, Devin Singletary, James Conner, Hollywood Brown, and Michael Wilson. With all being sub-$6k in salary, any 25+ point outcome will have to be accounted for.   
• Mid-Range TE (specifically Trey McBride, Evan Engram, Cole Kmet, and Dalton Schultz) – All four are between $4,100 and $5,000 and are projecting for 75-80% combined ownership. If all fail to put up a 4x salary considered score, a different salary allocation could have extreme leverage. Note – Dalton Kincaid ($4,900) is also in this price tier and is projecting for double-digit ownership. More on Kincaid later.
• WAS DST – The Commanders are projecting to be the highest owned DST unit on the slate, even though their season high is 11 DK points. It’s one thing to play a high owned, expensive chalk defense when they are in fact an elite unit with upside, it’s another thing to roster them when it’s The Commanders…  Slate Breakers – Such as Ja’Marr Chase’s 55 DK point performance in week 5 or CJ Stroud’s 46 points in week 9.

Price Range Breakdowns (Late Games):

Note – With only 3 games on the slate and ownership generally spread out, the caveats of “high owned play if ahead, or low owned pivot” have been removed this week

$7,100 and up: