JM’s Player Grid 5.25

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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Sunday Morning Update

Here’s a look at my exposures on the weekend, and how I’m attacking this slate ::

The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on YouTube, or on the One Week Season podcast feed).

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.1K

Justin Fields
Rico Dowdle
Jahmyr Gibbs
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Adonai Mitchell
Garrett Wilson
Darren Waller
Ladd McConkey
Saints

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = $100 paid out to the winner(!) (OR free Bink Machine access!)

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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Blue Chips

Not unusual by this point in the year, but I don’t have any true “Blue Chip” plays this week.

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“4”

Jared Goff + Amon-Ra St. Brown + Jameson Williams + Sam LaPorta

Story:

“All the way to the left, or all the way to the right”

Why It Works:

We’re trying to win tournaments. Remember that.

On Thursday night, the Bink Machine spit out a Goff + 3 roster for me, and when I ran the sims on it, it was my highest-ROI roster so far on the week. Interestingly, the roster was projected to finish in the bottom 1% of tournament fields nearly 5% of the time(!)…but also, it was projected to finish in the top 0.1% of tournament fields 0.56% of the time. Basically, it was 5x as likely as the average roster to finish at the very back of the leaderboards, and it was 5x as likely as the average roster to finish at the very top of the leaderboards.

I’ve been saying all week that this sets up for one of those random “27 attempt, five touchdown” games that Goff is capable of.

If he has one of those here, it’s possible that the overstack is the way to capture all the points.

This is an all-or-nothing block, but it’s one that would make us plenty of money if we could play out this slate a hundred times.

How It Works:

On a roster with this block, I’m fine playing high-usage chalk plays the rest of the way. If this hits, the goal from here is to not screw things up elsewhere. I won’t fight it if I have a roster with this block that also has another off-the-board piece; but generally speaking, it’s fine to play things very straightforward away from this block of players.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“6”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

Fields Includes Cowboys

Because the Jets are refusing to let Justin Fields take over games, they need the Cowboys to be scoring points for Fields to have a clear shot at tourney-winning production; and if the concentrated Cowboys offense is scoring points in that way, there will be DFS scores we can benefit from. With this in mind, it makes sense to have a rule (and to follow this rule on hand builds as well) that ensures that all Fields rosters also have exposure to the Cowboys.

This rule says, “On 100% of Fields rosters, include at least one, and as many as three, of these Cowboys” (on 100% of rosters with the locked player, include two to four of the total players in this pool).

Note: Because Pickens and Ferguson probably need volume in order to post tourney-winning production, and because they probably need the Jets keeping pace in order to see volume, I also like the idea of including at least one Jets piece on every Pickens or Ferguson build.

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Justin Fields || Justin Herbert || Kyler Murray || Jared Goff || >>—<< || I’ll also probably mix in a little bit of bankroll exposure in larger-field SE/3-Max to one or two of the QBs more suited to large-field play :: Spencer Rattler // Daniel Jones // Sam Darnold // Jaxson Dart // Bryce Young // Jake Browning.

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM