JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat) who is focusing this year on single-entry/three-entry max
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (above).
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!
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Easy does it.
We can talk about Josh Allen “disappointing of late” — and yet, he’s still scored 24+ DK points in all but one game this season, and he’s set to be playing in a dome against a Cleveland pass defense that ranks 26th in DVOA. With a run defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA, Cleveland has faced the ninth lowest opponent pass play rate in the league, but we know the Bills will typically tilt toward the air unless the ground matchup is soft AND the aerial matchup is brutal, which will allow Allen to attack a defense allowing the eighth most yards per pass attempt in the league. I don’t want to roster Josh Allen and end up with 25ish DK points — but given the state of this slate, that type of score won’t kill you…and Allen’s ceiling is as high as anyone’s on this slate.
As highlighted in my DFS Interpretation for this game in the NFL Edge, I’ll be on Diggs this week, but will (mostly) only play him on rosters that include Allen. I’ll also be on Gabe Davis (both with and without Allen), and will be happy to include a Cleveland bring-back on rosters that focus on this passing attack.
New this year: these are unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
“One guy pushes the other”
With pricing pretty tight this week, most people who think about this pairing will try it…and then move on. It’s tough to build a roster around this, which should make one of the most natural pairings on the slate relatively low-owned. While each guy should grab individual ownership, the combinatorial number should set you up for success. Most importantly, this pairing has enough raw upside that it can be a difference-maker if it hits.
Teams have attacked the Cowboys on the ground, and the Cowboys build their offensive identity off the run. This game has a chance to start pretty slowly; but if the pace and scoring pick up late in the first half, we could end up with a game in which each of these guys is seeing 12 to 15 targets. Jefferson is a challenger for the crown of “best wide receiver in the NFL,” and Lamb is taking on a Minnesota defense that has allowed the second most wide receiver yards in the league. I expect most of my exposure on these players to come together. Note, this pairing is going to be higher-owned on FanDuel, where these players take up only 28.7% of the salary cap compared to a hefty 33.2% on DK. This gives you less of a strategy edge, but does give you an excellent package of correlated plays at a too-low price tag.
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
Josh Allen || Justin Fields || Marcus Mariota || Dak Prescott || Kirk Cousins || Joe Burrow
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!