JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in “The Week 1 Special” pod, on the One Week Season podcast feed.
Sam Howell
Miles Sanders
Josh Jacobs
Curtis Samuel
Calvin Ridley
Chris Olave
Mike Gesicki
Marvin Mims
Texans
Free
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!
250 Edge Points (good for 5 free DFS Education courses!) + ‘Discord Blue’ color in Discord!
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Hurts scored 27.5 or more DK points in over half of his regular season games last year, reminding us that he’s one of the highest-floor ways to spend salary this weekend. He also had three games of 37+. This game has a wide range of potential outcomes (could be high-scoring, could be low-scoring), but against an aggressive Patriots defense that likes to blitz and play man coverage regardless of opponent, there is opportunity for a huge game, and Hurts will almost never “completely burn you” for playing him. I strongly encourage you to listen to “The Week 1 Special” pod this week (find it in the One Week Season podcast feed), as I break down my player pool thoughts on every game, giving a much deeper look at things than a typical NFL week provides the space for; but as noted there, I’ll be pairing Hurts with one of his pass catchers on each roster where I play him.
Last season didn’t give us a 2021 Cooper Kupp player, or a “healthy, OG Panthers-role Christian McCaffrey” player (someone for whom 30 DK points was almost a disappointment, and 40 was surprisingly frequent), but Justin Jefferson was one of the closest we had, with nine games of 28.5+. He’s still a player on the rise, which means it won’t be surprising if this season tops last year. He’s on a team that likes to pass the ball, and he’s taking on a Bucs team that generally filters opponents to the air. Tampa’s zone-heavy scheme would limit upside for some wideouts, but Jefferson and Cousins are able to find small spaces to attack in the downfield portions of zones, giving him upside in all setups.
I’ll be betting on the Vikings having success through the air this week, which means that a lot of my non-Jefferson rosters will feature a different pass catcher from the Vikings as well.
Feel free to ignore me on this one.
Though I’ll point out that I’ve said that before on Miles Sanders, with 30+ points following.
Miles Sanders is a very good back, he’s the clear lead dog for Carolina, and the Panthers are banged up at wideout and will be looking to make things easy on Bryce Young. If Sanders gets 16 to 18 touches, he’s in the same range as almost all the backs priced around him, with an equal or higher level of talent (in a beatable matchup). If Sanders gets 22 to 24 touches (which will not be surprising), he’s getting significantly more opportunities than almost all the backs priced around him.
Davante Adams scored 30+ DraftKings points seven times last year, and Josh Jacobs hit that mark four times. Each had a game of 35+ vs the Broncos last season. These two are always in play.
“The Week 1 Special” pod (in the One Week Season podcast feed) dives into some interesting elements in this Bucs offense (building off some things said by offensive coordinator Dave Canales); but one thing he said — when discussing timeshares in other backfields, and using Zeke/Pollard and another similar situation as examples — was that ‘Those teams had two great backs, whereas we have one great back and several good backs.’ Translation: regardless of what might happen later in the year, White enters this season as “The Guy.”
Soft matchup.
Concentrated offense.
A role in the run game and the pass game.
The only real concern here is touchdowns. If he scores, he’s probably reaching value — and possibly going above what you need.
I expect him to be priced at $7.4k or higher within a few weeks. Even if he doesn’t hit this week, he’s one of the sharper ways to spend salary on the slate.
I’ll also have exposure to Kirk // Zay on some of my non-Ridley rosters.
I expect him to be priced at $7.7k or higher within a few weeks. Even if he doesn’t hit this week, he’s one of the sharper ways to spend salary on the slate.
I’ll also have a bit of exposure to Michael Thomas and Juwan Johnson on some of my non-Olave rosters.
Will be competitive.
Could be low-scoring…
…but also, could be high-scoring.
I will have zero Higgins/Chase/Chubb away from rosters built around this game, but I’ll have a chunk of rosters built around this game.
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
-JM
