JM’s Journal 5.25

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

JM’s journal will be live THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND

tuesday, Sept. 30 Early Thoughts ::

Diving right in this week.

Here are some early notes I hammered in last night ::

Last week at some point, I called Quentin Johnston a $7k wideout. I backtracked that in my thinking a bit as we moved deeper into the week, simply because I don’t think the Chargers will completely maintain enough volume for him to reach that price tag this year; but I do think he’s playing like a $7k wideout right now, and in games when the volume is there, that level of ceiling will be there. if Jayden Daniels comes back this week, there’s a decent chance this game is competitive enough for the volume to be there. With some routes sure to be on the ghost of Marshon Lattimore, the ceiling would be there. Nice value at $5.7k, with low ownership keeping his price down as people have been slow to challenge their priors here.

Goff could have one of those random 5-td games vs the Bengals.

If Jayden Daniels can figure out the chargers, that game between Daniels and Herbert has potential to provide plenty of touchdowns.

If Fields fails, or if he does well but someone else does even better, those are the spots likeliest to provide the top score on the slate. But in terms of probability and upside, Fields is pretty clearly in a tier to himself on this slate.

Maybe this will be one of those things where my thoughts change as we move deeper into the week, but it feels pretty clear that he’s the best on-paper play.

41 // 48 // 55 — that’s what we’ve gotten from Javonte + Cowboys wr1 in three of four. If Fields hits, it’s highly likely Garrett Wilson hits. If Fields really hits, it’s almost certainly in an environment in which the cowboys are scoring points. If the Cowboys are scoring points, two of Javonte // Pickens // Ferguson are almost certainly involved. Fields + Wilson + two Cowboys is a very strong starting block.

72 & 65 (combined points) last two Javonte + WR1 + Ferguson — 70.4 is 4x for the full block 106 & 91 with dak — 94.4 is 4x for the full block

RIGHT NOW ::

I’m in Oakland reserving lineups.

Over the next couple days, I’ll continue watching last week’s games and working through this week’s slate.

I imagine I’ll have more thoughts worth passing along at some point today, and definitely throughout the evening/night Wednesday.

As always, I’ll be working on the early shape of the Player Grid on Thursday evening/night, and I’ll pass along thoughts there.

Friday night I’ll bridge the gap between the Player Grid and my “Build thoughts.”

Saturday night I’ll be building and sharing what I’m seeing.

I had a nice hit in Week 4 (second place in the Facemask for $20k; just a click off the $50k first-place payout — shoutout to the Bink Machine and the Sims for helping me find the roster I put in play there; my second-highest expected ROI of the 1,000+ rosters I worked through last week), and we’ll look to keep it rolling this week.

Let’s go!

COWBOYS // JETS ::

I just finished watching this Jets // Dolphins game.

One complication to the Fields play this week: the Jets are putrid on offense…

Furthermore, they pretty much refuse to throw until they have to.

Yes, the Cowboys have a great offense; but as we have explored, they are not naturally aggressive. There is a world in which the Cowboys are in control and stay conservative, and the Jets are close enough that they keep almost everything on the ground.

It’s a weird week, then, as QB is genuinely pretty ugly (which is why it looked to me, at first glance, like Fields was in a clear top tier on his own).

It’s pretty comfortable to say Fields has the best shot at différence-making ceiling on this week’s slate…but there are certainly pathways down which he comes nowhere close to sniffing that ceiling.

Should be an interesting week to work our way through.

On a separate note: this could easily be a week like last week, where plenty of running backs do well, and you just have to make sure you have a couple of the guys who hit. But among that group of guys likely to hit is Achane. Great matchup vs the Panthers; and with no Tyreek, Achane will be a focal point.

A pretty obvious one, but worth shouting out.

WEDNESDAY, OCT. 1 UPDATE ::

GIANTS-SAINTS ::

This Giants // Saints game is interesting.

Outside of a horrible game in Seattle (tough travel, tough environment) where a cascade of early mistakes put them in an impossible situation that they didn’t have a solution for…outside of that, the Saints have looked really solid. Not great or even good, but impressively solid.

The Giants have a tremendous defensive line, but not much else; and the Saints are all about the quick passing, and are playing almost entirely in rhythm, which could give them an edge toward successful drives. If these drives end in touchdowns, we have something interesting.

The Giants used Dart like Tim Tebow in his first start (lots of designed runs, an entire game plan designed around the rushing attack, with limited passing), and he doesn’t have Nabers. I could see Daboll having a totally different // evolved game plan jn Dart’s second start, though the loss of Nabers complicates that. It’s hard to see the Giants piling up tons of points, but something like a 23-27 game is in play, with the Saints getting their first win.

The Saints were good vs the Bills, but just couldn’t score. They could have less trouble vs the Giants. Three team touchdowns seems like around what they would average here over time, so spikes to four touchdowns and outliers to five would happen if we played out this game a hundred times.

This is becoming a split backfield, and the running backs aren’t a huge part of the passing attack, so it’s a “Rattler + pass catcher (or two)” setup here, for me. We also run the risk that the Saints attack on the ground like they did vs Buf, and no one really produces even in a good game for them.

Just firing off some thoughts.

JETS // COWBOYS ::

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3 THOUGHTS ::

this image is from one of my highest-roi rosters of the week so far in the bink machine, and one i’ve set aside as an early favorite for potential goff builds: a goff // jamo // arsb // laporta stack. we talk about building rosters that can finish “all the way to the left or all the way to the right,” but it’s especially interesting to see visual representation of this type of roster on an roi scale. from these mid-week sims, this roster finishes in the bottom 1% of tourneys a whopping 4.6% of the time; but it also finishes in the top 1% 2.6% of the time, and more importantly, it pushes into the top 0.1% a whopping 0.56% of the time. it’s a really fun “all or nothing” stack this week.

Player Grid :: https://oneweekseason.com/the-scroll/week-5-2025/#scroll-article-jms-player-grid-5-25

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 4 UPDATES ::

GENERAL ROSTER-BUILDING THOUGHTS ::

Weird night; i keep poking around on things, and i feel like i am making headway in my thoughts, but i don’t really have any fresh insights or ideas or conclusions to share

i’ve been playing around with some ja’marr chase builds, and i’ve been seeing what these dowdle builds look like, since my builds to this point in the week had obviously not had him.

i also keep thinking the dolphins will have to find a way to ramp up waller’s snaps.

still lots to work through on this unique slate, and i probably won’t feel i have much more clarity until i’m deep in my builds tomorrow night — but as always, if i come across any fresh thoughts between now and then, i’ll pass them along.

JM’S EXPOSURE PROGRESS ::

It’s starting to look like most of my exposure this week will be primarily focused on:

cowboys // jets
lions (with some ja’marr starting to make its way in)
dolphins // panthers
chargers

in my most recent set of 23 hand-builds, only jsn (15-20%) and bowers // jakobi // mhj (all sub-10%) were coming from outside these teams.

obviously, these are not “final answers,” but this is where my late-week mind is starting to go while building.

BRYCE YOUNG // RICO DOWDLE ROSTER-BUILDING ANGLE ::

In 6/9 games to close last year, “bryce young + carolina rb1” combined for 31.5+ DK points (3.5x or better for Bryce + Dowdle), including games of 71.9 (8x) and 53.7 (miles sanders; nearly 6x).

in those big games, scoring took off, and pairing with the opposing rb1 led to 101.1 and 88.0.

there is a truly decent chance (easily greater than 5%, and possibly greater than 10%) that a young + dowdle + achane pairing could go for 5x or better (81.5) — or at least 4.5x or better (73.3).

this one is climbing up the ranks for me a bit. “if fields fails, what could win this week?” i won’t be surprised if i have something like ~15% of my bankroll taking swings on this setup this week.

SATURDAY NIGHT UPDATE ::

Winner Circle pod is up in the Inner Circle podcast feed (if you don’t have that podcast feed added, you can do so here – https://podcasts.helloaudio.fm/subscribe/02f04db2-208d-4705-bb76-b682e2592e73/8638EQf7l3) // if you’re curious where my thoughts are as I head into building, with regards to how I’m attacking things and how I’m seeing this slate as I head into my Saturday night roster construction, I think this pod has a lot of value this week.

My “Sunday Morning” Update is early this week. Let’s go! https://oneweekseason.com/the-scroll/week-5-2025/#scroll-article-jms-player-grid-5-25

EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, 10/5 UPDATE ::

JM’S LIKELY FINAL EXPOSURE ::

Barring late-breaking news, my exposures are shaping up as follows:

25%+ bankroll on each of goff // fields // bryce young || remainder on herbert // kyler // with a bit of browning

50% or more of bankroll on each of breece // achane // gibbs, with dowdle and javonte between 30% and 50%, and with 10% or less of rachaad // omarion // jt // saquon. (just a reminder: if i’m playing someone, i like them; so don’t overthink things if i have small bankroll exposure to someone you plan to have big bankroll exposure to). i didn’t end up with any skattebo, but i still like the play this week.

50% or more of bankroll on each of jameson williams // arsb // pickens, with garrett wilson and jsn between 30% and 50%, and with ~15% or less of qj // tmac // ja’marr // waddle // mhj // ayomanor // pittman // nico

i somehow ended up with zero tyler warren (lots of ferguson and laporta accounted for on fields // goff bankroll exposure, and other things worked better on my other builds), but i still very much like the play this week. i have between 30% and 50% of laporta and ferguson, with waller at ~25% representing my other significant exposure.

at dst, i somehow ended up with zero cardinals, but i still very much like the play this week. most of my exposure is on the saints, with some texans and seahawks mixed in.