JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
Here are some notes i made for myself as i dove into the slate for the first time last night:
fun week
floor for rosters high
pricing tight, early
looks like waller likely to be a popular salary saver (facing bengals te funnel, coming off a huge game in primetime after pricing had been set).
there are plenty of games that can play to the high upside
what is going on w cardinals // falcons pricing?
dive into recent arizona games
arizona combined scores
arizona pricing — how absurd, across their four games.
what london was doing before he left. compare to pricing of guys much higher.
what bijan has been doing
pitts
variations of this game
Maybe marvin harrison will return, and we’ll have to adjust. but for now, let’s look at this:
mcbride + wilson + brissett = $19.8k
in games mhj has missed, they have scored:
78.4
71.0
63.4
93.9
that is outrageous.
on top of this, the arizona defense has been awful of late, allowing 40+ in four of their last six, and 27+ in five of six.
recent totals in arizona games:
60
62
37
51
63
66
recent totals in atlanta games:
57
46
51
34
57
56
you guys. what!?
the game total in this one is only 47.5 — and at -105, we could see this fall to 46.5 before the end of the week. this wouldn’t “keep the field off” this one; but it would be a less attractive total than it should be. 75% of the last 12 games these teams have played have gone to the over (4/6 atlanta; 5/6 arizona).
atlanta opponents are averaging 27.6 points per game across their last eight.
arizona opponents are averaging 36.2 points per game across their last six, and 32.4 across their last nine.
there are quite a few games on this slate that can play to the upside, and i’ll get to thoughts on all of them, of course. but when opening the slate last night, this was the spot that pulled me in first.
this game has real shootout potential, and one side of this game is hilariously underpriced. (brissett’s price dropped this week. what!?)
and then on the other side — yes, with a different qb; but still — drake london is $7k, and is averaging more dk points per game than every other wideout on this slate. on top of that, london started the season slow (10.3 points per game through his first three), and he proceeded to rip off a 27.2 point-per-game average across his next six.
this game.
wow.
I didn’t get to spend as much time diving into this one last night, but jacksonville // denver is another one with sneaky shootout potential.
in seven games since the bye, the jags have averaged 32.9 points per game. they scored 29 against houston (the most anyone has scored in this matchup; one of only two times houston has allowed more than 20). they scored 35 vs the chargers (the second most anyone has scored in this matchup; one of only four times a team has topped 21 vs lac). they scored 36 vs indy (the most anyone has scored in this matchup; the only time a team has topped 28 vs indy). the jags are on fire.
the broncos are a good defense, but they aren’t as scary as their reputation.
they have allowed 12.6 points per game across eight contests vs the raiders (twice), chiefs, mills’ texans (stroud injured early), jets, eagles, browning’s bengals, and titans.
in their other six games, they have played packers, mariota’s commanders, cowboys, dart’s giants, chargers, and colts, and have allowed 26.7 points per game, with game totals in those games of 60 // 53 // 66 // 65 // 43 // 57.
the 45.5 total in this one is not going to stand out to projection systems or to our competition. and this game carries genuine shootout potential.
A third sort of funny total to me is bengals // dolphins — for different reasons than above.
the total in this game is 50.5.
recent miami games:
43
44
38
29
43
34
44
37
that’s eight consecutive games that haven’t even sniffed this total.
the bengals’ defense has also been playing better lately, and while cincy/buffalo became an aggressive “attack mode” shootout very early (73 total points), burrow’s other two games since returning have gone for 46 and 24.
projections are going to love this game — and maybe it plays to the upside. it certainly can. but we should be aware of the fact that it’s an uphill climb to get there.
More fun with totals:
the chargers have played seven consecutive games that have finished under 47 points.
cowboys games have gone over this number in 9 of 11.
the total here is 49.5, which projection systems will love.
i’ve already been messing around with early rosters that bet on this one playing to the upside, as it absolutely can; but we also want to be aware of the more methodical nature of most chargers games. they don’t typically score quickly. it’s work for them on offense. and they don’t typically let teams score quickly against them.
Another early build i messed with was mccarthy and his cheap wideouts vs the giants.
realistically, i think this will look better at first glance than it will at a deeper, slate-level look. it’s highly unlikely we get more than 27/28 pass attempts from mccarthy, even if this game becomes high-scoring, which caps the high-end runout we can get here. if some of these other games on the slate play all the way to the upside, it will be difficult for variations of this stack to keep up. but there is a world in which the rest of the slate underwhelms enough for this stack to prove difference-making; and there is another (more shadowy) world in which this stack actually performs well enough from a raw-points perspective to actually just be “what you needed to have.”
basically: i don’t like this as much as i did at first glance; but i do like it, and i can certainly see the case for it in this matchup.
as i said at the top: it’s definitely a fun slate.
Going back to london and michael wilson real quickly…
wilson is averaging 29.5 per game without mhj.
london is averaging 27.2 per game across his last six.
the highest-priced players on this slate:
21.6 — achane ($8.8k)
22.5 — bijan ($8.7k)
20.3 — ja’marr ($8.6k)
23.5 — gibbs ($8.5k)
20.5 — arsb ($8.4k)
like puka and jamo last week, these two playing opposite one another // hopefully playing off each other are the two most underpriced pieces on the slate. (fingers crossed for mhj to give his heel some extra time.)
We also have mcbride at $7.6k (~$1k less than the guys above), averaging 24.3 dk points per game since brissett took over. that’s 24.3 points per game (just shy of cmc) across a nine-game sample. there isn’t a ton of noise in there. that’s a pretty clean stat. as we have continued to hammer: mcbride is still underpriced.
