JM’s Journal 14.25

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

JM’s journal will be live ON FRIDAY BUT AVAILABLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ON DISCORD FOR INNER CIRCLE MEMBERS

TUESDAY, DEC. 2 ::

JM’S INITIAL WEEK 14 BIG-PICTURE VIEW ::

I’ve been a little slow getting started this week.

the last two weeks, of course, have been nuts.

we had the travel fiascos at the end of week 12, and then week 13 was an outrageously ugly sunday slate, along with thanksgiving week (family and double “main slates” from a content and preparation perspective), added to another round of sickness on my end late in the week (thankfully already kicked), and all said and done, a really nice two-slate stretch of play on my end and an enormously profitable week for the ows fam.

i opened the week 14 slate on sunday night and immediately closed it. i spent a bit of time with it monday night, and then closed it again.

it’s not an ugly slate. it might even turn out to be a slate we like a lot. but it doesn’t appear to be a slate with any super cheap stacks or blocks on concentrated offenses (think tyrod & co last week, or brissett & co the first week mhj missed). it doesn’t appear to be a slate with a smash-potential qb play (think bo nix that week against the giants; man, what a season we’ve had!). and with us being at a point in the season where pricing is really tight, it would be nice to have one of those things.

the start of the month always puts some “work” on my plate (business/admin stuff), and this month had more than normal. but i cleared all of that out today, and the remainder of this week is probably my easiest “nfl work” week of the year ::

i’m at my in-laws’ house in central oklahoma — which means 40 quiet acres with longhorns and chickens, no travel for reserving lineups, no dance classes or soccer practice or afternoons at the go kart track, no family outings, and with my mother-in-law’s favorite thing in the world being taking care of her grandchildren (of whom mine are numbers 12 & 13 — & by far her youngest, with seven of her grandkids now 19 or older), it also means far fewer responsibilities on that side of things for me as well. basically, with my work cleared out, the rest of my week is watching games, listening to content, and thinking about the slate. i’m behind on the week — but i won’t be behind for long.

over the next few hours, i’ll be digging in deeply for the first time this week.

later tonight, i’ll have some journal entries.

tomorrow (probably later in the day), i’ll have plenty more.

let’s get started!

BEARS TE ANGLE ::

On my first practice build, i asked the question: “can i play jsn, puka, and ja’marr together?”

the answer is probably no. you have to take a sub-$5k quarterback, a couple running backs in the $5k to $6k range, and go cheap at dst (which means missing out on the browns at home vs the titans — a potential “seattle v brosmer”-type producer).

but it did put me onto the following, marginally-interesting block:

$5.9k.

last 5 games:

18.4
16.2
16.5
11.0
32.8

pairing: kmet + loveland.

as this offense has evolved, the te position has become more involved.

ideally, we want better production than that — but if salary savers are as thin as they appear they might be this week, this one is at least worth having in our back pocket.

iniTIAL WEEK 14 TE OVERVIEW ::

One complication to that bears te pairing (and another thing to keep in mind) :: “cheap te” looks deep this week.

likely and andrews both have a great matchup v pit.

miami filters targets away from wideouts and toward tight ends (mason taylor).

gunnar helm keeps stacking wins. (if you haven’t watched him yet, he’s pretty awesome. he’s so under the radar that the only nfl highlights i can find of him on youtube are from a preseason game. i wanted to drop a clip for you guys — but apparently you’ll just have to buckle down and watch a titans game one weekend. sorry for your eyes.)

darren waller carries ceiling.

brenton strange has posted 10.5 // 12.1 // 13.5 // 14.3 in his last four healthy games, and has a great te matchup and likely aggressive game script vs indy.

juwan johnson has double-digit points in 5 of 6 (and 8.9 in his other).

kirk cousins is obsessed with kyle pitts if london is still out — & tight ends rack up targets vs seattle.

dalton kincaid (17.6+ in 3 of 7 healthy games) should be back this week in an outrageously good matchup v cincy.

all of these guys are $4.3k or cheaper.

this doesn’t even include warren v jax, or bowers // mcbride.

te looks deep.

wr does not.

i’ve been heavy on two-te builds this year — & it’s another week where that looks like an early favorite for my builds.

initial WEEK 14 WR OVERVIEW ::

How “not deep” does wr look?

here are the wideouts on the entire slate who A) cost more than $5k, and B) in their current situation (the role they’ll have this week) have gone 4x or better their week 14 salary at any point in the season (buckle up) ::

jsn, $9k :: week 12 v ten

zay flowers, $6.1k :: week 1 v buf (no other games over 2.5x)

dk metcalf, $5.4k :: week 4 v min (only one other game over 3.06x)

michael pittman, $5.4k :: week 8 v ten // week 9 v pit

alec pierce, $5.1k :: week 9 v pit

egbuka, $6.3k :: week 5 v seattle // week 10 v ne

ja’marr, $8.2k :: week 2 v jax // week 7 v pit (technically, he’s in a different situation now than he was vs pit, but with the situation being a qb upgrade to burrow, we won’t pick nits)

higgins, $6.2k :: week 9 v chi (same as chase: this is technically a different situation — but better)

courtland sutton, $5.6k :: week 3 v lac

troy franklin, $5.5k :: week 2 v ind // week 8 v dal

rome odunze, $5.7k :: week 2 v det

puka, $8.7k :: week 4 v ind

and that’s it.

that’s the list.

deebo ($5.5k) got there — just barely — a couple times with jayden. olave got there once with rattler. you could lump those guys into the pile if you want.

but the point still stands: the chances are not all that high of you nailing a 4-leg parlay (playing 4 wideouts and getting all of them right) when “nailing each leg” means “getting something that’s only happening — if we’re being generous — 10% of the time across the board.” In fact, the chances of you getting four wideouts correct on a roster together (if by “correct” we mean 4x or better) are somewhere in the general range of 1 in 10,000.

so.

yeah.

i might use a flex spot on a tight end this week and give myself only 3 wide receiver spots i have to deal with.

(and if i can find a way, i’ll probably pay up for certainty on a couple of those wide receiver spots.)

i missed one game :: mclaurin last week.

so — putting a bow on that:

there are 26 wideouts on this slate (assuming mhj plays) priced at $5k or higher.

only 13 have gone for 4x their salary at any point this year (in the situation they’re in this week).

among the 26 wideouts priced at $5k or higher, there have been 17 total games that would have kept you on a 200-point pace.

filtering out “situations that are different” (jayden’s games, michael wilson playing without mhj, rattler instead of shough, etc.), these wideouts have played 265 total games.

and okay. honestly. let’s put rattler’s games in and say that rattler to shough isn’t a clear downgrade, and we should only account for situations that are clearly different. i’m good with that.

so then we have 14/26 who have “hit,” and 18 total games of someone hitting.

we also then have 273 total, relevant games played.

across 273 games, we have 18 instances of a player keeping you on a 200-point pace — or a 6.59% hit rate.

what are the chances of hitting something that only happens 6.59% of the time across four spots at once?

about one in every 53,000.

this is important stuff to keep in mind.

this is why the high-priced guys (who might not get you 4x, but will typically get you that 20-30 point score you’re often missing from the cheaper guys) are so valuable.

and this is why a guy like shakir (who bombed last week, and has a bad matchup this week; but just using him as an example) — who rarely smashes, but often posts a strong score — sometimes becomes attractive deeper into the season.

we need to look for ways to turn the math in our favor.

it’s tricky at wide receiver right now.

WEDNESDAY, DEC. 3 ::

FRIDAY, DEC. 5 ::

JM’S PLAYER GRID UPDATE ::

Just a quick update from my end ::

I believe that “how we construct our rosters this week” — how we approach salary allocation and “certainty allocation” — will be critical. With that in mind (and with the fact that I’m ahead on the week), I recorded a bonus Winner Circle just now, which I just submitted to our audio guys. I’m expecting it to be on the Inner Circle podcast feed in the morning.

I’m also about 80% of the way through my Player Grid writeups.

Not much has changed from last night, but the bottom of the Grid currently looks like this:

Josh Allen // Trevor Lawrence // Tyrod Taylor

James Cook // De’Von Achane // Bucky Irving // >>—<< >>—<< // Bengals Block (Chase Brown also works) // Quinshon Judkins // Breece Hall // R.J. Harvey // Devin Neal

Jaxon Smith-Njigba // Puka Nacua // Ja’Marr Chase // Michael Wilson // Colts // >>—<< // Emeka Egbuka // Jakobi Meyers (though I prefer him on rosters built around this game) // Christian Watson // Troy Franklin if Pat Bryant misses // “Cheap with Upside” options if I’m playing McBride at TE or FLEX (my “Cheap with Upside” are Pat Bryant if he plays, Dontayvion Wicks, and Luther Burden)

Trey McBride // Tyler Warren // Dalton Kincaid // Kyle Pitts // Brenton Strange // Juwan Johnson // Colston Loveland if I need the savings

Broncos // Browns

Light Blue Chips are Achane // Cook // Bucky // JSN // McBride.

I’m poking around on builds for the next couple hours, so if anything pops up on my end, I’ll drop it in here — but I’m more at the “how to build” phase than the “who to build with” phase; and I think a lot of my “how to build” questions are also settled (see tomorrow’s bonus Winner Circle pod), which really just leaves me at the “how am I going to execute all this on my end” portion of the week (which is typically my Saturday night portion).

Now…it’s just now the end of Thursday, so I say all this while acknowledging in my mind that there is still injury news that could pop up, and that Searching for Ceiling and/or my conversation with Squirrel can also plant some new thoughts in my mind. I may also find something while building that I hadn’t seen before. Nothing is settled (and of course, nothing has to be yet). But at least for now, that’s where my mind is at.

I’ll aim to let you know once this Winner Circle pod is live.

I’ll let you know when the Player Grid is live (it should go up around 3 PM Eastern on Friday — a few hours earlier than normal).

And I’ll let you know where my thoughts flow if/when things come up.

WINNER’S CIRCLE POD part 1 LIVE ::

Just a heads up: that early/first Winner Circle pod is up on the IC podcast feed.

JM’S PLAYER GRID LIVE ::

Player Grid is up early. Let’s go! – https://oneweekseason.com/the-scroll/week-14-2025/#scroll-article-jms-player-grid-14-25

SATURDAY, DEC. 6 ::

OWS EXPERTS CONVERSATION, RE: UPSIDE ON WEEK 14 SLATE ::

Wanted to share this conversation with you guys.

i wouldn’t even say i’m “high-confidence” in lawrence, honestly. but again: confident in the potential for game environment ceiling, and confident in how the best rosters can be constructed this week as long as allen and/or burrow don’t go off.

WINNER’S CIRCLE POD PART 2 LIVE ::

Winner Circle II is up on the IC podcast feed

BENGALS-BILLS GAME ENVIRONMENT THOUGHTS ::

Because I’m primarily leaning toward the “pay down at qb” builds, we haven’t really talked enough about the scenario in which josh allen (or burrow) is the qb you “had to have.”

my main builds (both if kincaid is active and if kincaid is inactive — 2 with knox; 2 with kincaid: 2 that get used either way) are probably already built. so with extra time tonight, my plan is to build a set of rosters that accounts for that game.

bc of the run defenses here (and the pass d of the bills, and the preferred style of play for the bills offense), the ultimate high-end runout in that game is less likely than it might have been in other seasons. but it’s still there.

it’s certainly within the realm of possibilities that, on sunday night, we find that the ows community was too light on stories of that game playing to the upside through the passing attacks. that’s a scenario i’ll lean into in my final “side builds” tonight.

just wanted to highlight // shout that out.

SUNDAY, DEC. 7 ::

SUNDAY MORNING JM PLAYER GRID UPDATE ::

My “Sunday morning” update is live – https://oneweekseason.com/the-scroll/week-14-2025/#scroll-article-jms-player-grid-14-25