Game Overview ::
By PAPY324 >>
- This game has a low total because only the Jaguars are expected to do any scoring. How much scoring the Jaguars do will directly depend on the Titans’ ability to keep up in the game.
- Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley both qualify as “play passing game pieces against the Titans” guys this week. Both are priced at or below $6K on DK.
- Trevor Lawrence hasn’t scored more than 20.7 DK points all season! This is a get-right spot at home, against a pass-funnel defense, but he has shown no upside so far this year.
- Travis Etienne saw his lowest snap share (61%) of the season last week coming out of the Jags’ bye. The game was also a blowout, and he got his bell rung on a trick play.
- The Titans still want to play 1990s football, but Will Levis looks like a gunslinger, boasting the highest aDOT in the league.
- DeAndre Hopkins has seen an elite target share and is the only Titans WR to collect any volume. He burned a large portion of the field last week and might be underowned.
How TENNESSEE Will Try To Win ::
The 3-6 Titans limp into Week 11 having gone 1-4 in their past five games. The Titans are in the basement of the AFC, and it would take a small miracle for them to make the playoffs. They’ve essentially accepted their fate, finally turning to Levis, who has played a lot more like a first-year starter the last two weeks than he did after his hot start against the pass-funnel Falcons. Levis needs to go through normal growing pains, but he does have the look of a QB who is going to be good. We’ve seen this archetype over the years (Peyton Manning being the best example) of a strong-armed rookie who makes a lot of plays alongside a lot of mistakes in his first season. The Titans have opened the offense by their standards the past couple of weeks (Levis leads the league with a 11.4-yard aDOT), but they still rank second to last in pace of play, are 22nd in pass rate over expectation (PROE), and 19th in passing rate. Mike Vrabel’s team has a ground-and-pound identity. That isn’t going to change as long as he is the head coach.
The Titans’ long-term future is better served by losing out for higher draft picks, but Vrabel’s butt is probably starting to feel warm. He’s going to try and do everything he can to motivate his team to win this game, likely giving a speech that involves “hitting them in the mouth.” Despite Vrabel’s zeal, this version of the Titans has one of the worst offensive lines in the league (31st-ranked by PFF). They couldn’t protect Levis at all last week, leading to 13 hits and four sacks. Even though the Jaguars defense was gashed by the 49ers, they’ve generally been good this year. Their run defense has been strong (No. 4 in DVOA), and their pass defense has been well above average (No. 6 in DVOA). There isn’t an obvious place to attack them, and even if there was, the Titans would still run the ball. The Titans’ best chance is to come out throwing, but that is unlikely to be their game plan. Expect another run-heavy approach, with a little bit more willingness to let Levis attack downfield than we’ve seen over the past few years with Ryan Tannehill.
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