Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Chargers WR Keenan Allen (shoulder) missed practice Wednesday before returning to a limited showing on Thursday. I expect him to play.
- Chargers TE Gerald Everett (chest) did not practice Wednesday or Thursday and appears on the wrong side of questionable.
- Chargers backup TE/red zone threat Donald Parham (hip) was a ‘DNP’ Wednesday before a limited session Thursday.
- The Green Bay injury report is relatively clean, with RB Aaron Jones and WR Christian Watson practicing in a limited fashion on consecutive days.
- Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen combined to see 40 opportunities (carries plus targets) on 68 offensive plays run from scrimmage in Week 10 without Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer.
How los angeles Will Try To Win ::
Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer’s absences have taken their collective toll on offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s offense, with no viable secondary options left behind Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. Jalen Guyton has never commanded targets at a high rate, Quentin Johnston is clearly not ready for the NFL game (and is largely being utilized in ways that don’t optimize his talents), Derius Davis is a diminutive slot man behind Allen, Gerald Everett is showing his age, and Joshua Kelley has been wildly inconsistent. As such, a massive portion of this offense should run through Allen and Ekeler, more so than we have seen before. One good aspect of this offense is the proven ability to game plan and game manage to exploit deficiencies in their opposition. As such, expect a run-balanced approach emphasizing short-area passing over the middle of the field when they go to the air. As was mentioned above, Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen combined to see 40 opportunities on 68 offensive plays run from scrimmage in Week 10 in the absence of Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer, a situation that is highly likely to continue forward due to the absence of viable secondary options.
Ekeler is fresh off a 26 running back opportunity game against a difficult Lions opponent in Week 10, marking the third consecutive game with seven or more targets. That said, he has really struggled on the ground this season, trudging to 3.6 yards per carry and not going over a modest 3.5 yards per carry mark in any games since Week 1. That is down significantly from the 4.5 and 4.4 yards per carry values he put up in the previous two seasons, respectively. Even so, he has 23 red zone opportunities and eight goal-line carries through six games played, which puts him on pace for the third-best red zone role in a per-game framing of all backs in the league. The Packers rank 26th in DK points allowed per game to opposing backfields, giving up eight rushing scores to the position. Joshua Kelley should continue in his change-of-pace role but has not seen more than seven running back opportunities since week 4, the last game Ekeler missed.
The duo of Ekeler and Allen combined for a robust 21 targets on 40 Justin Herbert pass attempts in Week 10 against the Lions, which honestly could be on the low end of the weekly range of outcomes as far as team target market share goes without Williams and Palmer. We could see these two in the 70-75 percent range in a game or two at some point over the remainder of the season. There just isn’t a lot of viable depth behind those two on the roster currently and Kellen Moore has a proven record of emphasizing his top options. Seriously, Jalen Guyton (14.0 percent TPRR against zone) is the closest player to the TPRR rates of Allen and Ekeler against zone coverage this season amongst the remaining skill position players on the roster. Quentin Johnston (12.1 percent)ranks 113th in fantasy points per route run against zone coverage this season. We’re exploring zone so heavily because the Packers run the ninth-highest rate of zone coverage in the league this year, against which Allen holds an elite 0.54 fantasy points per route run (fourth) and a solid 26.1 percent TPRR rate.