Ravens (

27.5) at
Bucs (

23.5)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Monday night brings us two games, the first of which has the Ravens visiting the Bucs for a nice 50 point total game with Baltimore favored by 3.5. This should be a fun one. Both teams are sitting at 4-2 and very much have the look of serious postseason contenders. What makes this potentially more fun from a DFS perspective is that the Ravens defense, which was long a strength of the team, has sprung leaks this year, as they’ve allowed 24.8 points per game so far this year (the Bucs are also slightly below average here). Both teams are top-4 in the league in points scored so have two elite offenses, and two defenses that appear to have taken a step back. We should be in for some fireworks. 

Tampa Bay

On the Bucs side, it looks like Rachaad White should return from a one game absence, throwing their backfield into confusion. Bucky Irving was already eating into White’s role on the ground prior to the injury, then performed well in White’s absence with 81 yards and a score on 14 carries (plus 2 for 24 through the air), but RB3 Sean Tucker also went bananas with a 136/1 line on 14 carries of his own and 3/56 through the air. Of course, this came in an elite matchup against the Saints, and the Bucs also controlled the game throughout. This is a much tougher matchup, as while Baltimore’s defense has been (much) worse this season, it’s all been through the air. They’re allowing just 3 yards per carry to opposing backs, the lowest in the league by a wide margin. So, we have a backfield with highly uncertain workloads in what has been the worst possible matchup for running backs this season. I think you’d be justified in deciding just to stay from this situation entirely, but if you do decide to go after it, I’d personally lean towards Irving over White (you’d be looking for goal line work here to snag a TD, and I think Irving probably has that role now), or even Tucker, if you just want to take some random shots. I’m going to go underweight the whole spot and hope it doesn’t burn me, which I feel pretty good about given the matchup. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

The passing game is where the Bucs can make some noise as Baltimore is allowing a whopping 276 passing yards per game (only Jacksonville is worse, and only by 1 yard). The duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin is one of the top WR pairings in the league and they’ve been delivering so far this year, with at least one of them going over 20 Draftkings points in all but one game this season. Godwin got moved back to the slot this year and it’s resulted in great things for him, but Evans was right on his tail production-wise until last week when he was predictably shut down once again by Saints cornerback Marshawn Lattimore while Godwin went berserk. Take that game away and things look much closer between them: 36 targets and a 276/5 receiving line for Evans against 40 targets and a 386/5 line for Godwin. Obviously, edge to Godwin there, but not a massive one. Both are in play here and I view them as pretty close to equal. I really like Godwin in the slot role and think he’s a little bit safer, but also think he’s going to project a little better and that could skew ownership his way. The way I think of this is that anything more than a 5% gap in projected ownership is too much, and I’ll build my allocations according to those projections.  Rookie Jalen McMillan was handling the WR3 role early in the year before getting hurt but he returned last week but only played 18% of the snaps. WR4 was Trey Palmer but he also got hurt, suffering a concussion in Week 4 and missing the last two games. He returned to full practice this week but is still listed as questionable, which indicates he’s still in the protocol. I’d guess he gets cleared, which throws this situation into even more confusion because veteran Sterling Shepard took over for McMillan and then played over him in Week 6 when McMillan returned. What the heck do we do with this? Here’s my take: McMillan was being eased back in a bit, but Shepard also outperformed him in his absence, catching 7 of 11 targets for 78 yards and a score and even rushing the ball 4 times last week. McMillan, meanwhile, has only caught 3 of 7 targets for 59 yards and a touchdown. Assuming Palmer is active I think all three see the field, but I think Shepard is likeliest to lead the trio in snaps. I think he’s shown that he’s more useful to the team right now than McMillan, who I think will continue to ramp his snaps up slowly and give him a chance to acclimate to the NFL. Fair warning that I could be wrong here, this is just an educated guess on my part. If you have a strong take in a different direction, you should play it your way. Given their prices and the matchup, if one of these guys runs away with the WR3 job, they have a decent shot at landing in winning lineups. 

At tight end, Cade Otton is completely uninspiring but also solid and dependable. His ceiling is low but he’s scored 7.4 or more points in four of six games. At his price, that’s at least a reasonable chance to appear in winning lineups. He also has 6 red zone targets, tied with Godwin and one behind Evans so his touchdown equity is pretty solid even though he’s only caught one so far. TE2 Payne Durham was a blocker but is out this week. Last week some guy named Ryan Miller filled in for him and caught a pass (woo!). I expect he’ll be elevated from the practice squad again, but just watch the news here. If he’s not elevated, it could be Ko Kieft in the TE2 role instead. Either of them would just be MME punt options. 

Baltimore