GAME Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- The Panthers have a slew of key defensive injuries this week but appear mostly at full strength on offense.
- Only CB Kevin King (concussion) did not practice for the Falcons on Wednesday.
- The Falcons need a win against the Panthers and a Buccaneers loss to the Saints to reach the postseason. They should be fully motivated and approach this one with a ‘business as usual’ mindset.
- The Panthers have long been eliminated from postseason contention but continued to play both well and hard down the stretch as they continue to evolve into the team they had envisioned when they signed first-time head coach Dave Canales this offseason. Expect that to continue into Week 18.
HOW CAROLINA WILL TRY TO WIN ::
As we spoke to last week, the primary shift in this offense that has led to increased efficiency of late is a more balanced offense that is able to build its pass game behind an effective run game. We saw what the absence of Chuba Hubbard did to the overall efficiency of the offense in a blowout loss to the Buccaneers a week ago, something that could come into play again this week after Hubbard was placed on season-ending injured reserve. Like the Buccaneers, the Falcons present a pass-funnel matchup away from their top corner in A.J. Terrell, meaning we’re likeliest to see a balanced offense with aerial production to the players that avoid Terrell. Quarterback Bryce Young has not attempted more than 38 passes in the previous three games, with this team instead more comfortable approaching games with a run-balanced approach. But the ‘effort level’ and ‘give an eff level’ should be there for this team in Week 18 as they continue their journey under a new coaching regime.
It was Raheem Blackshear that saw the bulk of the opportunity out of the backfield in Week 17, who played on 77% of the team’s offensive snaps (saw only eight opportunities due to the extremely negative game environment). Mike Boone saw 23% of the team’s offensive snaps and handled two carries and saw two targets. Expect Blackshear to again operate as the primary back, with volume ultimately at the mercy of the game environment in which he finds himself in. The Falcons have allowed 1.90 yards before contact per attempt (13th), 4.4 yards per carry (17th), and 17.8 fantasy points per game (10th) to opposing backfields in 2024, so this is not an ideal matchup on the ground, but it is slightly better than the one this team found themselves in a week ago against the Buccaneers, potentially leading to a slightly more efficient offense.
Adam Thielen and Jalen Coker continue to operate as the team’s primary wide receivers, with Xavier Legette and David Moore confined more to package work. Even so, immense pass volume is not this team’s going-in game plan, and, as we saw last week, it is more difficult for anyone to return a GPP-viable score with modest volume. Thielen managed to hit the 100-yard bonus and score twice a week ago, but he did so on just six targets. It remains Thielen that is the likelist player to return production on a weekly basis, and he should avoid Terrell for the duration of the game, but he saw an almost 10% salary hike following his monster game from a week ago and is now priced around wide receivers with better cost-considered ranges of outcomes. The tight end stable continues to be primarily a two-person split between rookie Ja’Tavion Sanders and Tommy Tremble. Neither has seen more than a modest three targets in a month.
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