XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 17 is Showdown Party City with games on Christmas and Saturday. Can’t wait! The first game of the week has the Chiefs visiting the Steelers for a game with a 42.5 point total and Kansas City favored by 2.5. As we’ve discussed in multiple Chiefs Showdown writeups all season, they aren’t really an elite-tier offense anymore. They’re not bad at 23.7 points per game, which is slightly above average, but this is no longer the “Patrick Mahomes throws all over the place and crushes” Chiefs team of years past. Instead, they’re primarily winning based on their defense, which is allowing just 18.5 points per game (3rd lowest in the league), and on a penchant for eeking out close games. Also important to note is that if the Chiefs win this game they clinch the 1 seed, so no reason not to expect them to go all-out here.
PITTSBURGH
On the Steelers side, Jaylen Warren has out-snapped lead back Najee Harris for three straight games. Two of these were losses in which Pittsburgh trailed for most of the game, but one was a win against the Browns. Najee’s the main guy here in positive game scripts but with the Chiefs being the better overall team and also effectively impenetrable to opposing rushing (just 4 YPC allowed), it’s hard to think Warren doesn’t give the Steelers a better chance to win here. Warren’s floor and ceiling are also boosted, of course, by his strong passing game role. Najee can still spike (and has multiple games this season of 5-6 targets of his own), so he belongs in player pools. I think there’s a decent chance that Warren actually comes in at higher ownership in this one, which makes the guy with the goal-line role interesting from a contrarian standpoint. Overall, though, I prefer Warren this week. Cordarelle Patterson is also hanging around and stealing a handful of touches and we know his deal: lots of per-play upside, some schemed usage around the goal line, not a lot of volume. He’s a punt option.
In the passing game, the Steelers are expected to get George Pickens back, which could not come at a better time as their passing attack has been stuck in neutral without him. Pickens makes the whole thing work because defenses have to respect him and that opens up opportunities for other guys as well. While the Chiefs are absolutely elite against the run they’ve only been average-ish against the pass, allowing roughly league average passing yards per game and yards per pass attempt, which gives us some semblance of hope for the Steelers offense. Pickens is the crown jewel here and the best skill position play in the game. Behind him…well, it’s a carousel. Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin play meaningful snaps and then 2 out of 3 of Mike Williams, Scotty Miller, and Ben Skowronek should fill in the rest. Jefferson is on the field a fair bit but does very little – he’s averaging just 2.3 targets per game (that includes three games without Pickens, mind you) and has only hit double-digit DK points once. It’s worth noting that Jefferson is tied with Pickens for the most targets inside the 10 yard line with 7, so if that trend continues it at least gives him some touchdown equity. Calvin Austin is the better play and will also be the more popular play as we’ve already seen multiple ceiling games from him with Pickens on the field. He has tons of big play ability (and perhaps Pickens being back will open up more opportunities for him to hit one). The other three are all punt options and relatively thin ones at that. They’re all playing 20-35% of the snaps and can be projected for just 1-2 targets.
At tight end, Pat Freiermuth has been making a bit of a late-season surge to try and reward anyone who was patient enough to draft and hold him through this lost season. Muth went three games in a row with touchdowns and double-digit DK points, which at his price would do nicely, before failing to find paydirt last week against Baltimore. His volume has been sporadic all season long, bouncing between 2 and 7 targets per game while averaging just 4. He doesn’t have a ton of yardage upside so he probably needs a touchdown to pay off. The bad news here is that he only has 4 targets inside the 10 yard line on the season. TE2 Darnell Washington looked like he was making a bid to usurp Freiermuth a few weeks ago but has disappeared from the offensive game plan with just 2 targets in the past four games. He can still be included in player pools as a punt option as can TE3/touchdown vulture MyCole Pruitt, but you’re drawing thin here. Overall this passing offense really centers on Pickens and it gets really thin/spread out after him. I’d be aggressive in using limits to prevent too many secondary Steelers pieces from being paired together as the lack of volume makes it highly unlikely several of them are going to hit together.
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