Game Overview ::
By Mike Johnson >>
- Denver will lock up a playoff spot in the AFC with a victory.
- Rain is likely in Cincinnati for this game, although we won’t know the amount, severity, or duration of what to expect until closer to kickoff.
- The Bengals still have an outside shot at a playoff berth if they win both remaining games and have a few other outcomes work in their favor.
- This game will feature a battle of strength vs. strength as the elite Denver secondary tries to slow down Cincinnati’s top-ranked passing offense.
- Broncos RB Jaleel McLaughlin is likely to return this week, making Denver’s backfield a three-headed monster once again.
How denver Will Try To Win ::
Denver put themselves on the hot seat a bit with their Week 16 loss to the Chargers, as they now sit in the 7th seed with a two game cushion on the Bengals, Dolphins, and Colts. Theoretically, the Broncos could fall out of the playoffs if they lose their last two games and any of the three aforementioned teams were to win their last two. Obviously, the Bengals are this week’s opponent which adds a level of importance to this game, while the Colts and Dolphins face the downtrodden Giants and Browns and are both favored to win, setting up a situation where if Denver loses this game they could be put into a “playoff situation” in Week 18 where they must win to get in. The good news for Denver is their Week 18 opponent is the 15-1 Chiefs who just clinched the #1 seed in the AFC and are likely to rest several key players in the final game of the regular season. That knowledge provides a level of security for Denver’s peace of mind, but they could still get as high as the 5th seed if they win both remaining games which would give them an optimal first round matchup against the reeling Texans. All of that is a long way of saying Denver will be approaching this game with everything they’ve got and essentially treating it like a playoff game.
The matchup for Denver’s offense is very good against a Bengals defense that has struggled most of the season. Recent performance shows that Cincinnati has produced a lot of sacks and turnovers, but their last three opposing QBs were Cooper Rush, Will Levis, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. During their five games prior to that, mostly against more respectable QBs and offenses, they were allowing 35 points per game. Speaking of opponent dependent units, the Broncos have had a soft recent schedule of opponents and are averaging 33 points per game over their last five outings. What does this all tell us? The Bengals are, by most accounts, a below average defense and the Broncos have consistently produced against average to below average defenses.
If we are confident Denver can/should produce against the Bengals, the next step in our analysis is to figure out “how” that production will occur. Denver’s backfield will once again be a three-headed monster with the return of RB Jaleel McLaughlin. Things seem to rotate in terms of which player is featured as they take a “hot-hand” approach and different guys seem to match up better in certain situations. Cincinnati ranks 27th in run defense DVOA and is far from a tough unit to move the ball on in that manner. The Broncos offensive line has been great this season and should generate a strong push and help keep this offense ahead of the sticks. When Denver takes to the air, they continue to spread things around to many different players. WR Courtland Sutton is clearly the alpha on this team and is in position for a strong outing against a Bengals pass defense that has been beatable as well. Denver has five different WRs who run double digit routes on a weekly basis, and three tight ends splitting time as well. Everything comes down to rookie QB Bo Nix, who has been exceptional this season and has particularly thrived in strong matchups like this one. Denver ranks 7th in PROE this season and 5th over the past four weeks, while Nix has shown an ability to make throws to all areas of the field and isn’t afraid to take downfield shots. Denver’s defense is strong enough that they can usually depend on it, but after giving up 34 points to the Chargers last week and facing an elite Bengals offense they are more likely to start this game aggressively pursuing points rather than being cautious and banking on their defense helping them create separation.
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