Week 14 Monday

Patriots at Steelers

By: xandamere & Larejo

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XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 14 kicks off with the Patriots visiting the Steelers for a game with a 30-point total (one of the lowest Vegas totals we’ve seen in decades) with Pittsburgh favored by 6. Most of the time, I love my job, but when a game like this comes up to write up, ugh. But, there’s money to be won, so let’s see if we can figure out how. First, some injury stuff: Kenny Pickett is out so the Steelers will have Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. Rhamondre Stevenson is doubtful and thus probably out, which would leave the Pats with a backfield of Ezekiel Elliott and likely Ty Montgomery or JaMycal Hasty (or possibly both). The Patriots also have all of Demario Douglas, Devante Parker, and JuJu Smith-Schuster listed as questionable. My guess is Parker and JuJu play while Douglas misses another game. 

New England

On the New England side, Zeke slides into a big role. Last week, he played 69% of the snaps and handled 17 carries and 5 targets after Rhamondre went down (and that was with Rhamondre playing about a quarter of the game). That’s a big role as normally backs with roles like that are more expensive than $9,400. Look, every play in this game is gross, but in the context of this awful game, Zeke sure looks like a strong on-paper play. The Steelers defense is no joke but they’re better against the pass, and we can feel confident that the Patriots are not going to go into this one with a pass-heavy game plan given their woes at quarterback. Behind Zeke, I really don’t know how things will split between Montgomery and Hasty, but my guess is Hasty will be the direct backup – we’ve seen Montgomery on the team all season and he only has three carries, having been primarily used as a pass catcher. I think it’s most likely that Hasty plays the RB2 role, and Montgomery will maintain some level of involvement but probably more as a receiver. I wouldn’t play these two guys together. 

The poor Patriots are incredibly banged up at wide receiver. Assuming Douglas doesn’t play (which seems likely as he’s in concussion protocol and has not returned to practice – not much time on a short week), they’ll trot out DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Tyquan Thornton as their primary WRs with Jalen Reagor and Montgomery playing supporting roles. I’m also expecting Kayshon Boutte to miss another game, but if he’s back, he’s probably in the WR4 mix. This is a tough matchup and not made any better by the Pats abysmal QB play, but at least they’re all really cheap. Parker is $5,600, JuJu is $3,800, and Thornton is $3,400. JuJu has shown zero semblance of upside with New England this year and I can quickly relegate him to the MME punt pool. Parker at least has some per-catch upside and is my favorite play here. Zappe also targeted him nine times last week on just 25 pass attempts, and while we can’t reasonably expect this kind of target share every week, his volume should be the safest on the team. Thornton is a wild card with an extremely low floor but solid ceiling – lots of per-touch upside, occasionally is schemed the ball in space to run with, and we saw him have some nice games last season so the ceiling isn’t purely theoretical. He’s volatile and thus also somewhat of a punt play, but I’d take him over JuJu in a heartbeat. 

At tight end, it’s primarily Hunter Henry and then Pharaoh Brown, with Mike Gesicki’s role shrinking of late (26% and 9% of the snaps last week while Brown has played 54% and 50% – the two lowest and highest rates of the season for these guys, respectively). Henry would be my second favorite Patriots pass catcher. Brown is more of a blocker – he hasn’t seen a target since Week 8 – but he’s viable as a punt, while Gesicki’s role has evaporated but could return if the Pats feel like they need pass catching more than blocking. ALL of these guys are pretty thin with extremely low floors. 

Pittsburgh

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On the Steelers side, the backfield situation hasn’t really changed all season, with Najee Harris playing a few more snaps than Jaylen Warren and handling 13.25 carries and about 2.3 targets per game against 8.5 carries and 4 targets for Warren. Warren has been the better back all season, and thus we in the fantasy community want him to be a bigger part of the offense but the Steelers haven’t really shown any inclination to give us what we want. It’s worth keeping in mind here that we see this play out frequently: the backup RB2 looks a lot more explosive than the slow, plodding RB1, everyone wants the RB2 to get more work, but then the RB2 ends up getting more work . . . and disappoints because perhaps some guys’ bodies aren’t durable enough to stand up to big workloads and still maintain the same level of per-touch upside. Tony Pollard comes to mind here. In a matchup as significant home favorites with volume on their side and reasonable prices, both Najee and Warren are in play. Warren is definitely the higher-ceiling play, but given how fascinated the fantasy community is with him, there’s a solid chance he attracts a lot more ownership than Najee. I view them pretty similarly. Najee is the favorite for more touches, but Warren has more per-touch upside (in part because of his ability, in part because he usually sees more targets). I’m just going to try to land on roughly equal amounts of each. 

I’m not sure the Steelers passing game really changes that much with Trubisky at quarterback, as it’s not like Pickett was exactly lighting the world on fire. It’s probably a small downgrade but not a huge one. The Patriots also rank 5th in run defense DVOA but just 25th in pass defense DVOA. I don’t think we’re going to see Pittsburgh come out slinging the ball all around the field with a backup quarterback as 6-point home favorites. However, I also think the Steelers passing game still has some semblance of upside here. George Pickens and Diontae Johnson are the primary wide receivers, with Diontae running shorter, higher catch rate routes while Pickens plays a deeper, higher per-target upside but more volatile role. My personal preference here is Pickens. If I think the Steelers aren’t likely to generate a large amount of passing volume, I’ll lean toward the guy who has a better chance of putting up a differentiating score on fewer targets. Both are fine, though, and it’s not as if the salary is tight in this one. WR3 Allen Robinson has barely been a factor in the offense all season, only reaching double-digit DK points once (in Week 1). Calvin Austin and Miles Boykin will also see a few snaps, and along with Robinson, can be treated as MME punt options. 

At tight end Pat Freiermuth had a huge explosion game in Week 12, then another five targets last week, but he’s still only playing around 59% of the snaps each week. Maybe that climbs as his injury gets further behind him, but $7,400 feels like an awful lot to pay for a guy who’s exceeded five targets just once on the season. This is definitely an underweight spot for me but he does have upside as we saw in week 12, so you can certainly view him as a pay-up to be contrarian option. Backup TEs Darnell Washington and Connor Hayward will be on the field a decent amount (Washington more so), but that has resulted in just three targets for Washington and four for Heyward since Freiermuth made his return.

Strategy Outlook

Overall, these are two bad offenses slugging it out in what is likely to be a slow, low-scoring game. Low total games boost the viability of defenses and kickers, as well as guys who can either get there via volume (the running backs) or via a big play or a touchdown (Pickens, Thornton, Henry, guys like that). Low-scoring games are generally not good for quarterbacks. So, let’s look at how we can build.

Potential Scenarios

• Onslaughts in either direction are viable. I think we’ll see a lot of Steelers onslaughts, but keep in mind that Pittsburgh has five games this season scoring 10 or fewer points, so it could certainly go the other way, and Patriots onslaughts will likely be much lower owned.
• Given the extreme low total of this game, I’m changing my “max 2 kicker and DST” rule to “max 3” for this one. 
• Salary is an interesting dynamic on this slate. We have a lot of value plays that are very, very thin options, and there is not a single player priced above $10k. Projections always push people to spend the majority of their salary. On a slate with really loose pricing like this and with dubious sub-kicker value options, finding ways to build rosters that leave $1k+ on the table while also not playing anyone priced below the kickers is an interesting way to think about getting different.

Cash Games

In cash games . . . I won’t be playing cash games. I don’t see the edge. But I’d probably focus on the running backs and kickers, maybe Pickens or Diontae. The QBs are fine as well. Yeesh. 

Tournaments

In tournaments, I want to have most of my captain ownership on the 3 running backs, Pickens, and Parker.

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OFF SCRIPT

LAREJO >>

The NFL is scripted. Well, they wish they were. What they do want is for the biggest stars to shine on the brightest stage. Over the course of a season, this tends to happen. But in a one-game sample, anything can happen and we can exploit the edge for these off script outcomes.

Similar to last Monday’s thriller between the Bears and Vikings, a game expected to be this low scoring is nearly impossible to have a feel for. We could see a variety of different outcomes, anchored on any of the four primary ones: a blowout or close win by the favorite (PIT), or a blowout or close win by the underdog (NE). There you have it, an exciting angle to this Showdown! All outcomes are on the table, now we’re thinking positively.

Before mentioning any players, let’s examine these paths briefly and see how you feel when reading each of these game scripts:

• Trubisky is decent, with maybe one pass touchdown through the air, we get another from Najee or Warreen on the ground, and NE struggles to get much going offensively. Ballpark outcome: Steelers 14-6.
• The Steelers defense shows out, Trubisky looks better than Pickett, Pickens or Diontae cracks 100 and a Pitt RB scores two touchdowns. Steelers 27-3.
• New England is buoyed yet again by the strength of their defense, forcing Pittsburgh into two or more turnovers, and doing just enough on offense. Patriots 16-10.
• Zeke turns back the clock, Zappe throws two touchdowns, and the NE defense continues to thrive. Patriots 24-9.

Forget the projected scores I threw in here. Read these outcomes and see which one grabs you. In my opinion, the four true outcomes here are really all viable. This is precisely why it’s tough to get a read on this game. With Pittsburgh installed as six-point home favorites, we’ll rule out the second scenario as an off script outcome. Steelers players will likely be higher owned than the Patriots, so if a home favorite dominates, that’s too expected. Instead, I’ll select a hybrid of the first and third scenarios above, expecting a close game without much scoring, where either team can win late.

Xandamere nailed it above with where the points should come from on each side. Zeke, Parker, and Henry on NE; and Pickens, Diontae, Najee and Warren for the Steelers. Zeke’s expected volume will be hard to ignore, and Henry has some (minimal) touchdown equity. The Pittsburgh running backs are safe, and either can be played (I lean toward Najee), while the receivers are really a toss up between Pickens, Diontae, or both. With Trubisky hitting Johnson for a touchdown last week, I’ll likely lean his way for a robust 8/45 performance, or something similar. And oh yeah, don’t forget about the defenses and kickers in this one.

Off Script Captains: Diontae, Pickens, Henry

Off Script Builds: CPT Diontae + Mitch + Najee + PIT D in 4-2 PIT builds // CPT Pickens + Mitch + Zappe in higher scoring builds