Fantasy Football Week Seven: Start/Sit: WR/TE

Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful. Last week was a fantastic week, bringing the season-long numbers into a very respectable spot.

Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers to get all the latest information from our crew in the lead-up to Week 6’s action – INCLUDING ANOTHER EARLY TILT IN LONDON.

But first…

Last Week: 11-9 (.550)

– WR: 7-3 (70%)

– TE: 4-6 (40%)

2024 NFL Season: 66-54 (.550)

– WR: 36-24 (58%)

– TE: 30-30 (52%)

Wide Receivers

My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.

Notable WRs on BYE this Week

DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Tolbert

My Guys This Week

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It’s about time I put some respect on Chris Godwin’s name. He’s been in the Honorable Mention section a few times, but I’ve yet to showcase him. Pro Football Focus grades Godwin at third out of 126. 3rd, out of 126. With a receiving grade of 86.6. Only  Nico Collins (92.4) and A.J. Brown (90.5) received higher grades. Welp, friends, he’s earned his time in the spotlight. As of this writing (through Week 6), these are Godwin’s ranks at WR: 51 targets (7th), 43 receptions (1st), 510 yards (3rd), 5 touchdowns (1st), 0 drops (1st), 7.5 YAC average (8th), and 141.0 passer rating when targeted (3rd).  Those are All-Pro numbers… and they’re league-winner numbers. Godwin is WR2 on the season and just laid down 40 points at New Orleans. Damn. That’s his resume. This week? It’s the Ravens who rank 31st against the wide receiver position. With another huge O/U (48.5), Godwin is going to get his in this one. Evans will, too. And Baker. But not Bucky. Look at that… four recos in one!

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions

Folks, Jared Goff is heating up. His last two games (34 and 38 points) have been phenomenal. LaPorta got involved last week (just one catch, but when it’s a 52-yard tuddy we take it). Williams has been involved. Montgomery and Gibbs are the best 1-2 punch backfield in the league. And for all that, Amon-Ra has just been “ok” by his standards. Or should I say the standard he set last year (and the second half of 2022)? We’ve just expected more, right? WR24 on the year was not what we paid for in the first round back in August and September. But there are signs of life for St. Brown, and I’m here for it. The Vikings have been one of the most generous teams to the WR position all year, and that will continue in Minnesota this week. Amon-Ra hasn’t gotten the targets we’re used to seeing for him, but that’s the consequence of playing in a stacked offense. He does, however, have a touchdown in three consecutive games heading into Week 7. Here’s saying he makes it four with a decent yardage total to boot.

Honorable mention: Tee Higgins (CIN), Justin Jefferson (MIN), Diontae Johnson (CAR)

My Fades This Week

George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers

I can’t blame Pickens for this. It’s the Justin Fields effect. Seriously. I watched it up close and personal for three years. JF1 is not a good quarterback. Sure, he’s fun for fantasy because he runs all over the place (including the endzone). But from a pass catcher’s standpoint, it’s – and how do put this lightly – mehhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. And Pickens will continue to be meh on a week-in, week-out basis until they make the switch to DangeRuss. Which, actually, may be this week. That hasn’t been announced as of this writing, but it feels close. Whether it’s Justin this week or Russell, the Steelers play the Jets, and I hate the matchup. Josh Allen had a decent game on Monday, but his WR didn’t. Additionally, Pickens’ usage is odd, to say the least. Per PFF, two weeks ago (vs. Dallas), Pickens was off the field for 11 pass plays. His route participation when he was in the game was 100% (20/20), but the missed opportunities are troublesome. Pickens was only off the field for four pass plays against the Raiders, but with only a 90.3% route participation 28/31). Like I said, odd. And entirely too inconsistent to trust. The Jets rank 4th against WR, and my bet says they rank higher after this week.

Chris Olave/Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans Saints

First of all he’s questionable for this one, and he didn’t practice Tuesday (10/15). And this is a Thursday game. So he’s most likely out. If that’s the case, shift this sit recommendation to Rashid Shaheed (who’s also questionable). If it’s neither of these guys, well, then maybe Bub Means becomes a start reco because he’ll get 25 targets. Kidding. We’re sitting Means also. I want to love Spencer Rattler, I do (check out this week’s write up in the QB Sits), but Denver is just too much for these guys this week. Even at home in the dome. No real need to get super explanatory on this one, right? Ok, since you asked. Olave – if he were to suit up – still isn’t the best bet, as he’s scored 12.0 or less in all but one game this season (actually, he’s scored 2.0 points or less in three of the six, if we want to get technical). Too much volatility in his volume and opportunity + rookie QB + Denver defense = SIT. HIS. BUTT. ON. YOUR. BENCH.

Honorable mention: Josh Downs (IND), Calvin Ridley (TEN), Jerry Jeudy (CLE)

Tight Ends

My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.

Notable TEs on BYE this Week

Cole Kmet, Jason Ferguson

My Guys This Week

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders

Davante Adams – traded (finally). Jakobi Meyers – injured (though probably playing this week). The rest of the pass catchers on this team are not named Brock Bowers – no, thank you. Brock Bowers? All dayyyyyyyyyyyy. TE2 on the season (3 points behind Kittle), Bowers has been the only reliable SPP (skill position player) on the Raiders offense all season. Read that again. He’s seriously heading towards TE1 on the season, he’s seriously contending for Rookie of the Year, and he just upgraded (yes, upgraded) at QB from Minshew to O’Connell. Friends, look at his last two games as the yardstick moving forward – 22 targets, 17 receptions, 168 yards, 1 touchdown, and 36 fantasy points. As if that isn’t enough, the Raiders get the Rams this week, with Los Angeles ranking 31st against TEs through Week 6. I’m swooning here, if you can’t tell, and I’m abundantly pissed I didn’t draft him anywhere.

Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars

Maybe it was the planned script, as Chicago is pretty tough on opposing WR, but Trevor Lawrence threw to Evan Engram all game long on Sunday in London. In his first game back from the hamstring injury that had sidelined him since Week 1. Ten targets, ten receptions, 102 yards, and a TE3 finish on the week. That’s the exact line we were all expecting during draft season, so if you were patient and held on, cheers to you (he was actually dropped in my league, and I, of course, scooped, which – thank god – because I punted the position in that league’s draft). The Patriots are top half of the league against TEs, so I’m a bit weary of the matchup this week. However, New England – when facing a top-tier tight end – is exploitable (Conklin went 5-93-0 against them, Kittle 4-45-1). Engram fits that bill. I expect another huge target share in this one, and the volume will pay off.

Honorable mention: George Kittle(SF), Hunter Henry (NE), Jonnu Smith (MIA)

My Fades This Week

Ja’Tavion Sanders, Carolina Panthers

Ja’Tavion Sanders has actually looked pretty decent. After a Week 1 showing where he received 73% of the snaps, he fell off a bit in favor of Tommy Tremble. When Tremble took a huge shot from Jaquan Brisker (that landed both in the concussion protocol), Sanders reemerged. He actually has 12 targets over his last two games, to go along with 8 grabs for 62 yards. Not blazing hot, mind you, but this position is about opportunity. Andy Dalton has never really loved his tight ends, but what else does he have in Carolina? Oh, yeah – Diontae Johnson (recommended start this week). Anyway, I say all that to say – not this week. Washington is nearly a Top 10 defense vs. TEs, though they’ve given up a score to the position in back-to-back weeks. Still, I don’t see Sanders factoring in much in this one. Call it a hunch (which, given my TE record this season, you should double down on him). Even with the volume and the TE1 snap share, he’s just not putting up points. Not yet, anyway.

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

Here I am, recommending we sit Freiermuth again. I promise I don’t hate him, I just think the QB room in Pittsburgh is garbage lacking. Either JF1 is going to be not great passing the ball, or Wilson will be Rus-ty (get it). Either way, Freiermuth isn’t going to be a top-12 producer at the position this week. When Pat scores a touchdown, he’s useful. JUST LIKE BASICALLY EVERY OTHER TIGHT END, SIR. I get that. But Freiermuth has scored more than 8.0 points just once this season, his targets are down from the first four weeks, and they’ve got the Jets this week. Maybe his volume will change when the Steelers hand Wilson the keys to the Pinto. IDK. At this point, I just can’t endorse Freiermuth this week, given the abundance of streamer options out there that are better plays.

Honorable mention: Theo Johnson (NYG), Mo Alie-Cox (IND), T.J. Hockenson (MIN)