Fantasy Football Week 14 Start/Sit: WR/TE
Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful. Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers to get all the latest information from our crew in the lead-up to Week 14’s action.
But first…
Last Week: 12-8 (.600)
– WR: 6-4 (60%)
– TE: 6-4 (60%)
2024 NFL Season: 151-109 (.58)
– WR: 78-52 (60%)
– TE: 73-57 (56%)
Wide Receivers
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation – green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
Notable WRs on BYE this Week
Nico Collins, Terry McLaurin, Zay Flowers, Courtland Sutton, Tank Dell, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman Jr.
My Guys This Week
Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans
Opponent: v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/Under – 39.5
Opponent Rank v. WR: 30 (31.80)
Last Four Weeks: 26 (39.53)
This offense is not great, let’s acknowledge that. Will Levis just doesn’t get it done for fantasy purposes, and we know this affects everyone around him. This isn’t calculus; we understand the formula. Subsequently, Calvin Ridley has been uneven for us, to say the least. But folks, the opportunity is there, and a check under the hood reveals we may want to stick with him – the targets remain, and Ridley is second in air yards (1,398), tenth in team target share (25%), and has elite route participation (94%). Also, if you are a regular reader of this column (thank you, btw), you may remember my bit on patterns – specifically the every-other-week producers. Friends, that’s what Calvin has been over the past seven games – bad, then good, then bad, then good. Last week was bad (WR61), so this week has to be good, right? RIGHT?
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
Opponent: v. Cincinnati Bengals
Over/Under – 50.5
Opponent Rank v. WR: 22 (28.00)
Last Four Weeks: 31 (42.93)
I was having a conversation the other day about first-rounders, not first-rounding. McCaffrey, Tyreek, and CeeDee specifically came up, as these guys were generally 1.1, 1.2, 1.3 in no particular order. I own a couple of shares, and as a result, I’m fighting for my playoff life in these leagues. Suffice it to say (and no surprise to anyone) that CeeDee goes as Dak goes, but Dak hasn’t been going. Since Dak went down, Lamb hasn’t finished about WR18, but friends, this is the week. The Bengals defense is uber generous to the WR position and just gave up 36 points via 180 yards and two touchdowns to the Steelers, and over 57 points to the Ravens two weeks ago. The matchup couldn’t be any better, and for his part, Cooper Rush hasn’t been terrible of late. Lamb is 4th in YAC yards this season, and I’m betting that he plays in this matchup. I don’t know that top 5 finishes are in the cards for CeeDee ROS, but I love the opportunity this week.
Honorable mention: Tee Higgins (CIN), Khalil Shakir (BUF), Jakobi Meyers (LV)
My Fades This Week
DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
Opponent: @ Arizona Cardinals
Over/Under – 45.5
Opponent Rank v. WR: 16 (26.20)
Last Four Weeks: 7 (28.57)
DK returned from injury in Week 11 and just hasn’t seemed to be the same guy he was before the knee injury. Wide receivers need their legs and seem to take awhile to fully reboot when they make it back to the field. He went right back to DK-level snap share (90%), but that has dipped to 78% and 75% in the last two. I don’t read into that, necessarily, because the route participation and opportunity are still there. But the production hasn’t been what we’ve expected/needed. His finishes since coming back – WR32, WR37, WR40 – and maybe that’s where we are at with him? Sturdy floor, but we need more for our playoff push. Arizona‘s ranks season-long and this past month aren’t as good as they look, so the matchup isn’t a factor for me here. I just need to see more from Metcalf and the Seahawks before I buy back in. In my leagues, where I’m pushing for the playoffs, he’ll be on my bench this week.
Deebo Samuel Sr., San Francisco 49ers
Opponent: v. Chicago Bears
Over/Under – 44.0
Opponent Rank v. WR: 4 (22.80)
Last Four Weeks: 14 (31.88)
Deebo started off really well this season, but with all the injuries and instability the San Francisco offense has endured, his production has been sporadic at best and downright abysmal at worst. The past six games have been putrid – WR140, WR37, WR25, WR61, WR72, and WR94, per FantasyPros. Folks, we can’t trust that during this critical time. There is an opportunity for rushing attempts, as this backfield has been decimated by injury, but I’m still not that excited about it. Samuel Sr. draws the Bears this week, and while their defense as a whole has been misfiring, they still hold up well against opposing WRs (Justin Jefferson just went 2-27-0 against them two weeks ago). If he does score well this week, it’ll be on the ground, but I don’t expect it.
Honorable mention: Jayden Reed (GB), Tyreek Hill (MIA), DeAndre Hopkins (KC)
Tight Ends
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation – green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
Notable TEs on BYE this Week
Mark Andrews, Hunter Henry, Zach Ertz, Dalton Schultz, Isaiah Likely
My Guys This Week
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
Opponent: @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/Under – 46.0
Opponent Rank v. TE: 26 (11.80)
Last Four Weeks: 9 (11.43)
Super obvious, and you can stop reading now if you like and move on to the other guys in my column. I’m just here to remind you that Brock Bowers’ skill and opportunity have blessed us with ridiculous numbers this season, and now he gets the Bucs, who have been bottom of the barrel in defending the position all season. I haven’t looked yet (I intend to), but this season is historic and has to be in contention for top TE seasons of all time. 40 targets in the last three games. FORTY. 27 receptions, nearly 300 yards, and two touchdowns. My god. I’m just filling the column at this point. Of course, you are starting him this week and all others, and don’t forget to put cookies under the tree for him this holiday season.
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opponent: v. Las Vegas Raiders
Over/Under – 46.0
Opponent Rank v. TE: 30 (13.30)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 29 (19.70)
Long, audible siiiiiiigh. Mike Evans came back from injury and promptly pilfered 18 targets in two games from this offense, primarily from Cade, who was fantasy gold (Bowers-esque) while Mike was out. Otton’s targets in the games Evans was out – 10, 10,11,8. He hasn’t hit those numbers in either game since, and it makes me sad. But I love the matchup this week, especially considering the large number of teams on the bye. The Raiders are about as bad as it gets against the position, especially generous since week 8 (surrendering 30.3, 49.2, 37.2, 23.6 in four of those five games). This game has a decent O/U and two QBs who love their big guys, so welcome to the Tight End Bowl 2024. I like Brock more, but Cade is Top 5 for me this week.
Honorable mention: Sam LaPorta (DET), George Kittle (SF), Dallas Goedert (PHI)
My Fades This Week
Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati Bengals
Opponent: @ Dallas Cowboys
Over/Under – 50.5
Opponent Rank v. TE: 12 (9.20)
Last Four Weeks: 12 (12.20)
Mike Gesicki has had a game here or there, but other than that, it really hasn’t been that impressive for him in 2024. Three top 10s in 12 games and only one finish above 23 in the remaining nine games (including finishes of TE97, TE68, TE51, TE79). Outside of super matchup plays and game scripts, he’s just not useful for fantasy. Dallas is a tasty matchup, and the O/U is the highest on the slate. This wouldn’t be the first time I eat crow in the tight end column. I go back to one of my earlier musings where I highlighted the Bengals offensive trends – specifically Joe Burrow – and their aversion to incorporating the tight end position. Let’s check the tape – Joey B. has attempted 144 passes over the last three games, and Gesicki only saw 16 of those. Friends, 11% target share doesn’t pay the bills.
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
Opponent: @ Los Angeles Rams
Over/Under – 49.0
Opponent Rank v. TE: 25 (11.50)
Last Four Weeks: 18 (13.93)
Dalton Kincaid is another player we loved in the preseason, but for various reasons, it just hasn’t translated. Too many mouths to feed on the offense as a whole, a switch to a run first philosophy, various injuries, etc. Focusing on the tight ends on this roster, Kincaid has to share space with another phenomenal talent in Dawson Knox, and there’s just not enough for either player to be fantasy-relevant. On the season, Knox leads in snap share (if Kincaid had played against the Chiefs it would be pretty even), though trails significantly in team target share (7.0% vs. Kincaid’s 17.3%). The metrics are goofy, but the result is still the same – meh – Kincaid has finished above TE14 just once all year. This is another big O/U, so Kincaid (or Knox) could hit paydirt (for a TE), but the Rams have only given up four touchdowns in 12 games. It’s not looking good for either TE in this one.
Honorable mention: Jason Ferguson (DAL), Tucker Kraft (GB), Will Dissly (LAC)
