Fantasy Football Week 13 Start/Sit – WR/TE
Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful.
Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers to get all the latest information from our crew in the lead-up to Week 13’s action.
But first…
Last Week: 12-8 (.600)
– WR: 6-4 (60%)
– TE: 6-4 (60%)
2024 NFL Season: 139-101 (.579)
– WR: 72-48 (60%)
– TE: 67-53 (55%)
Wide Receivers
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation – green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
My Guys This Week
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Opponent: @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/Under – 43.5
Opponent Rank v. WR: 30 (32.8)
Last Four Weeks: 30 (40.63)
I’m not entirely sure what’s going on with C.J. Stroud this season, but it isn’t what we expected. Nico Collins, on the other hand, mannnnnnnnn. Buddy is stupidly good. After a five-week stint on IR, he’s picked up right where he left off. He’s got a bye in Week 14, but other than that, it’s cruise control for your lineup. He’s got a realistic shot to not only be WR1 the rest of the way but finish in the top five overall, which is bonkers considering he missed five weeks. Jacksonville is as good as it gets matchup-wise, so lock Collins in this week.
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
Opponent: v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Over/Under – 47.0
Opponent Rank v. WR: 5 (22.70)
Last Four Weeks: 1 (22.50)
I’m not going to spend a bunch of time telling you how good Ja’Marr Chase is. WR1. There. That’s all I’ve got. What I am here to do is tell you not to be scared off by the matchup with the Steelers, who are hella good against WRs (and, frankly, every other position). The Colts, Cowboys, Jets, Giants, and Commanders WRs have all dropped 25+ points on the Steelers, and none of them boast the overall wideout talent the Bengals have. Chase and Tee Higgins are a cheat code – they put up Madden numbers routinely, and the Pittsburgh secondary is going to have their hands full. If the Cincy offensive line can keep Joey B upright, I expect one or both of these guys to put up good numbers.
Honorable mention: Calvin Ridley (TEN), Courtland Sutton (DEN), Terry McLaurin (WAS)
My Fades This Week
Davante Adams, New York Jets
Opponent: v. Seattle Seahawks
Over/Under – 41.5
Opponent Rank v. WR: 17 (26.60)
Last Four Weeks: 21 (36.03)
Davante Adams reunited with Aaron Rodgers! Adams and Rodgers owners rejoiced! Then they played Pittsburg on Thursday night. Blah. Just one game, right? Nope. Adams’ finishes as a Jet: WR52, WR50, WR8, WR44, WR34. He was on a bye last week, and we didn’t even notice. Friends, this duo is way past their prime. And while I like the playoff matchups (JAX, LAR, BUF), I’m not sure I can even trust him when we need him the most. This entire Jets team is an enigma and not the good kind. Until he strings together a few games, he best served cheering on your other guys from the bench.
Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Opponent: v. Houston Texans
Over/Under – 43.5
Opponent Rank v. WR: 26 (30.00)
Last Four Weeks: 29 (40.15)
I think it’s safe to say that Maccy Jones and BTJ aren’t vibing. And I wish it was that easy, but there were signs even before Trevor went on injured vacation. We were all really excited with the return on investment we were getting through five weeks, but he’s only turned in one game over 15 points since then (and one finish above WR25). So this isn’t a recent thing. Maybe the league has figured him out, maybe he’s run out of gas (the NFL season is considerably more rigorous than the college season), and certainly Mac Jones is a factor (he may be starting again this weekend). A quick look under the hood reveals ample route participation, but he doesn’t have the target share or air yards to go along with it. Translation: until he’s vibing again, we’re not using him.
Honorable mention: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET), Tyreek Hill (MIA), Quentin Johnston (LAC)
Tight Ends
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation – green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
My Guys This Week
Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints
Opponent: v. Los Angeles Rams
Over/Under – 49.0
Opponent Rank v. TE: 24 (11.20)
Last Four Weeks: 8 (10.38)
Damn it, BYE WEEK! Taysom nearly dropped a 40-burger and you give him a week off for it? WHY DO YOU HATE US? He’s back this week against the Rams and throw out Los Angeles’ ranks against the position because there isn’t a ranking for points allowed to the QB/RB/WR/TE position. Taysom did it all against Cleveland, and we love Darren Rizzi for utilizing this weapon the way Doc prophesized he should be in the preseason. He lines up everywhere, he scores from everywhere, and he’s schemed around offensively and defensively. He’s locked in ROS, so get him in there.
T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings
Opponent: v. Arizona Cardinals
Over/Under – 45.5
Opponent Rank v. TE: 7 (7.50)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 1 (5.73)
Thanks to overtime, when the Bears defense was present but not accounted for, as TJ racked up the touches, yards, and points to slide him into the top five at the position for the week. And for his part, TJ said he’s feeling better and ready to roll for the rest of the year – and I’m here for it. TJ is Kittle/Kelve/Bowers level when he’s on, so this is good news for us. I’m really not all that concerned about the matchup either because when the Cardinals play a decent tight end, they’re susceptible (LaPorta, Kittle, and Dissly all got ‘em). They don’t give up touchdowns (only one all season to the position), so the receptions and yardage will have to do. And I’m ok with that.
Honorable mention: Brock Bowers (LVR), Travis Kelce (KC), Jonnu Smith (MIA)
My Fades This Week
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
Opponent: v. Philadelphia Eagles
Over/Under – 51.0
Opponent Rank v. TE: 3 (6.30)
Last Four Weeks: 9 (10.45)
Mark Andrews has mostly been there for us since he woke up in Week 6, right? Five games out of seven in the top 10 (three of which were top three), and a very sturdy floor. My sit recommendation isn’t about him. Quite frankly, I just don’t like the matchup. I think the Eagles defense is smoke and mirrors (which, whatever, because they’re getting the job done), but they are really good at taking the tight end out of the game script. Outside Zach Ertz in Week 11, this unit has surrendered just one touchdown to the position all season. And a quick check of the matchups reveals they’ve played some pretty good tight ends this season, so it’s legit. Oh, and here’s another little nugget if you buy into the pattern methodology – Andrews has alternated good/bad weeks since Week 8, and he had a good week in Week 12. It’s Baltimore, and the O/U is the highest on the slate, so Andrews could go HAM. I’ve got several shares and am only starting him where I do not have a better option.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Opponent: v. Los Angeles Chargers
Over/Under – 48.0
Opponent Rank v. TE: 11 (8.50)
Last Four Weeks: 6 (9.63)
Kyle Pitts had a nice little stretch there from Weeks 5 through 8, but those matchups were soft as baby dookie. With two finishes outside the top 40 in his last three games, Pitts simply disappears against good defenses. This week he gets the Chargers, who have been good all season against the position, especially the past four weeks. Pitts has all the physical talent in the world and was billed as generational, coming out of Florida as pick 1.4 in 2021. But PFF hates him (33rd), and his usage doesn’t suggest his lackluster ways will end anytime soon. Outside his rookie season, it just hasn’t worked out for him, and I’m not sure it ever will again. I won’t say never, but I will say not this week.
Honorable mention: Jason Ferguson (DAL), Sam LaPorta (DET), Cole Kmet (CHI)
