Fantasy Football Week 13 Start/Sit: QB/RB
Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful.
Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers to get all the latest information from our crew in the lead-up to Week 13’s action.
But first…
Last Week: 10-10 (.500)
– QB: 6-4 (60%)
– RB: 4-6 (40%)
2024 NFL Season: 150-90 (.625)
– QB: 79-41 (65%)
– RB: 71-49 (59%)
Quarterbacks
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation – green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
My Guys This Week
Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Opponent: @ Cincinnati Bengals
Over/Under – 47.0
Opponent Rank v. QB: 28 (21.10)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 27 (21.80)
Russell Wilson hasn’t been especially fantastic this season, but he looked pretty damn good in the snow last Thursday. I’m willing to bet on that against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, especially considering the big-time O/U Vegas has on this game. Pickens is an obvious beneficiary, but Calvin Austin III has home run ability on each touch, and I guess that plays this week. It won’t be a fifty-sammich, but it’ll be top 12 for sure.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opponent: @ Carolina Panthers
Over/Under – 46.5
Opponent Rank v. QB: 27 (20.00)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 18 (18.13)
Mike Evans was back last week and Baker turned in a top 10 finish. Coincidence? Methinks not. After a couple of shaky performances, Mayfield is back in the top tier and can be trusted weekly. Oh, and the ROS schedule is tasty. I hate throwing the term “league winner” around willy-nilly, but he really could be. His remaining schedule is 4/5 soft matchups – Carolina (twice), Las Vegas, and Dallas. Carolina’s numbers these past four weeks are smoke and mirrors – two good games against Derek Carr (15.8) and Daniel Jones (14.1) and sandwiched between Jayden Daniels (26.95), Bo Nix (32.6) and Patrick Mahomes (31.45) – this defense is terrible against good quarterbacks. Giddy up.
Honorable mention: Josh Allen (BUF), C.J. Stroud (HOU), Patrick Mahomes (KC)
My Fades This Week
Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns
Opponent: @ Denver Broncos
Over/Under – 42.0
Opponent Rank v. QB: 4 (13.80)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 9 (14.70)
Jameis Winston is doing what Jameis Winston has historically done – erratic as hell, inconsistent, and untrustworthy. His last four finishes were 23.6 (QB10), 13.1 (QB21), 26.6 (QB6), 14.5 (QB18). Those two top 10s were against shoddy defenses (Baltimore and New Orleans). Admittedly, against suspect defenses, Winston is a name I count on. This week it’s the Broncos, who are damn good against the position – just once have they allowed an opposing signal caller to surpass 20 points (Lamar Jackson, in case you were wondering). Quoting Michael Scott – “Nope. Don’t like that.”
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Opponent: v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/Under – 46.4
Opponent Rank v. QB: 31 (22.40)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 24 (19.75)
First off, kudos to Bryce here. That he’s graduated to consideration for me each week is truly something. The final stat line wasn’t super impressive (16.5 points, QB14), but for the first time in his professional career (literally), he looked like an NFL QB. And it was a big-time matchup, and they very nearly handed Kansas City their second loss in a row as a result. Patrick Mahomes gave this kid his flowers, and he’s reportedly gaining the respect of the locker room as well. All that said, let’s not go all in just yet, even in a game where his opponent is very generous to the position. Carolina still lacks effective offensive weapons outside of Chubba, and I expect a big dose of him in this one. He needs to do it more than once for me to buy, so let’s see it again and go from there.
Honorable mention: Aaron Rodgers (NYJ). Cooper Rush (DAL), Will Levis (TEN)
Running Backs
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation – green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
My Guys This Week
Joe Mixon, Houston Texans
Opponent: @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/Under – 43.5
Opponent Rank v. RB: 31 (26.10)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 32 (33.77)
About six/seven weeks ago, I had a trade offer in one of my leagues – his Darnell Mooney and Joe Mixon for my Christian McCaffrey. Right when Mixon was coming back from his ankle injury suffered against the Bears, Mooney was fresh off a 30+ performance against Tampa Bay. I declined but loved the aggressiveness of the offer. Long, audible sigh. This isn’t a history lesson or cautionary tale – it’s me saying Joe Mixon has been ridiculous since that point (second in RB scoring since Week 6 behind only Saquon) and will be again this weekend against the Jaguars, who have been terrible against RBs all year, but especially bad these past four weeks (3/4 33 or more points allowed). Pick of the week: Mixon is going to FEAST.
Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans
Opponent: @ Washington Commanders
Over/Under – 44.5
Opponent Rank v. RB: 17 (20.70)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 17 (21.63)
Tony Pollard has been up and down this season, as most of us expected. He returns value here and there (top 24 in a little over half his games), but he’s just not sexy (one top 10 all season). That top 10, though, came last week. Tony was phenomenal against a very good Houston run defense, and he threw in some receptions as a bonus. I really like him this week against the Commanders, who are more susceptible to the run than meets the eye. He’s not a tier-one guy, but he’s better than he’s shown, and maybe Tennessee has figured out that feeding the best player on their offense is a good thing. He looks right again, and I’m willing to bet on him this week.
Honorable mention: De’Von Achane (MIA). Alvin Kamara (NO), Najee Harris (PIT)
My Fades This Week
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opponent: @ Carolina Panthers
Over/Under – 46.5
Opponent Rank v. RB: 32 (27.10)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 24 (23.87)
This goes against my philosophy of attacking matchups, but hear me out. Yes, the Panthers are one of the worst in the NFL against the run. Acknowledged. And White has held a sturdy floor for much of the season. This is mostly about the emergence of Bucky Irving as the guy in Tampa Bay. Way back when I waxed poetic about what Irving could be if the largely ineffective Rachaad White were to cede touches. Well, we’re here. White is still getting most of the snaps, but Bucky is doing the most with his touches. In games that both have played, last week was the first time that Irving’s snap share was higher, and I think the Bucs don’t look back. That said, this isn’t a start reco for Irving – it’s me making the case not to start Rachaad as a result. Declining snap count and declining touches, and he’s just not super-efficient when he gets them.
Jonathon Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Opponent: @ New England Patriots
Over/Under – 42.5
Opponent Rank v. RB: 22 (21.60)
Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 5 (16.05)
Why does the industry love Jonathon Taylor so much? He’s consistently ranked in the top 10 each week, and I have no idea why other than wishful thinking. Yes, he’s one of the true remaining bell cows, but so what? He’s not winning leagues for us; hell, he’s been in the top 10 just once this season. Overall, he’s been fine for us, but he’s also not fine when considering where we drafted him and what we subsequently need from him. RB finishes this season: RB29, RB14, RB4, RB13, RB11, RB35, RB15, RB28, RB35. That’s not enough, folks. And maybe he’s still dealing with the lingering effects of the high ankle sprain courtesy of the Steelers in Week 4. Idk. Maybe this is the matchup he gets right, and I know you’re starting him if you have to. I just don’t trust it.
Honorable mention: Javontae Williams (DEN), D’Andre Swift (CHI), Travis Etienne Jr. (JAX)
