We now have a week’s worth of data and can begin to examine the pace of play data and analyze which teams are running the most plays, have the fastest seconds per snap, the highest pass percentage + pass rate over expected, how much non-two minute no-huddle offense they are running, and many more pace related metrics! Now, let’s dive into this week’s games.
The Texans ran the most plays last week (76), and this game is projected to have the fastest combined adjusted pace time of 29.2. The two teams also have a slightly over average Pass Percentage + Pass Rate Over Expected Percentage, led by the Bears, who were 8th highest at 63.2% last week.
It’s still early to tell if this is a trend or if they did so just because they were trailing in the game, but the Bears did run the second-most non-two-minute no-huddle last week at 28.3%.
Both quarterbacks got the ball out quickly last week, with an average pocket time of 2.3 seconds, and they will need to do so again this week against the pressuring fronts of two pretty good defensive lines. The game is also inside the dome, which is always good for offensive production.
It might surprise some folks that this is one of the fastest-paced games of the week, but it is. The two teams have the third-fastest adjusted pace time of 29.6. The Saints ran the eighth-most plays (62) last week.
Both teams will need to open it up against each other in this one. The Cowboys came in at around 60% Pass Percentage + Pass Rate Over Expected last week, which was 10th best amongst teams.
They got up last week against the Browns and were able to take their foot off the gas, except in this one, they will have to keep the pedal to the metal against a Saints offense that came out pushing the ball downfield with Derek Carr throwing three TD passes. This is another inside game on the fast track in the dome.
There are a few other games with higher O/U totals that everyone should be excited about this week, like the Bucs at Lions and Rams at Cardinals, which both no doubt will be heavily owned this week in DFS and with plenty of offensive output, but sticking with the Pace of Play a game that should good under the radar is Browns at Jags.
The Browns have been saying since last year that they want to play faster, and they have been. Last week, they ran the third most plays (70) and threw the ball a ton, coming in with the second-highest Pass Percentage + Pass Rate Over Expected at 73.8%. The two teams combined last week to have the fourth-highest percentage in that category at 56.9%.
The Browns also had the second fastest time in seconds/snap at 23.2 and had the 4th highest Non-Two Minute No Huddle Percentage at 24.2%. The Jags’ pace numbers weren’t great last week, but the Dolphins played slow and expect with the Browns pushing the pace, they will have to keep and should be game to do so.
The Jags typically have one of the higher pass rates in the league, and Trevor Lawrence typically gets the ball out quickly, which he will have to do in this one with Browns star DE Myles Garrett coming off the edge.
