The Dolphins are 8th in the league in plays run per game (63.3) and are above league average in Pass Percentage Plus Pass Rate Over Expected (54.4%) and Pass Percentage (58%). They are 10th in Red Zone Conversion Percentage (58.5%) and have the lowest QB Pressure Percentage (24.8%). The Texans are 5th in plays run per game (63.7), 10th in Pass Percentage Plus Pass Rate Over Expected (58.5%) and 9th in Pass Percentage (58.1%). The Dolphins lead the NFL in EPA as a passing offense (99.65) since Tua returned to the lineup in Week 8. He’s averaging 42 passing attempts over his last four games. You can stack this game a wide variety of ways with many different run back options. This game has the 2nd highest remaining O/U point total at 46.5.
There has been talk of weather concerns in Cleveland, with potential rain and wind in the forecast. At the time of publication, it doesn’t look like the winds will be over 18-19 mph, and the threshold for concern starts around 20 mph. If the weather is okay, this is a pace-up spot for both teams. It comes in with the 2nd fastest adjusted pace time (28.1) and an average of neutral seconds per snap (26.0). The Chiefs are 3rd in plays run per game (64.2), 10th in seconds/snap (27.3), 7th in Pass Percentage Plus Pass Rate Over Expected (63.9%) and 10th in Pass Percentage (58.4%). They project to run the most plays this week (65.9). The Browns are 1st in plays run per game (66.2), 3rd in seconds/snap (25.6), 2nd in Pass Percentage Plus Pass Rate Over Expected (66.8%), 1st in Pass Percentage (65.4%), and 7th in Non-Two Minute No Huddle Percentage (14.2%).
This game comes in with the 3rd fastest adjusted pace time (28.3). The Patriots are surprisingly 5th fastest in this metric (28.1) and come in above league average in plays run per game (61.2), Seconds/Snap (27.1), Pass Percentage Plus Pass Rate Over Expected (54.4%) and Pass Percentage (57.4%). The Cardinals are above league average in Seconds/Snap (27.2) and 9th in Non-Two Minute No Huddle Percentage (10%). They come in with the 3rd highest implied point total (26.25). This is the 2nd best passing matchup for the Cardinals according to the sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA. It’s favorable matchup-wise across all the Cards’ skill positions. The Patriots have allowed multiple passing TDs in five of the last six games. This game has the 3rd highest O/U point total at 46.0.
This game has the fastest adjusted pace time (27.3) and the 3rd fastest average of neutral seconds per snap (26.2). The Commanders come in 1st both in adjusted pace time (26.7) and Non-Two Minute No Huddle Percentage (64%), 9th in plays run per game (63) and 8th in seconds/snap (26.9). They have the 6th highest implied point total (25.5) and are projected to run the 2nd most plays this week (64.8). Efficiency-wise, they have been tremendous, 4th in PPG (28.9), 5th in YPG (377.6), 6th in QB Pressure Percentage (28.7%) and 5th in Red Zone Conversion (60%). This matchup for the Commanders’ running game is numero uno by the sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA. The Saints are 4th in adjusted pace time (27.8,) along with being above league average in plays run per game (61.8) and seconds/snap (26.8). You can play the Commanders side of this game and stay away from the Saints side.
