This game is in the dome and is projected to be the fastest-paced game of the week, as it comes in with both the fastest adjusted pace time (28.0) and an average of neutral seconds per snap (26.6). The Bengals are numero uno in Pass Percentage Plus Pass Rate Over Expected (71.5%) and 4th in Pass Percentage (64.3%). They have the 2nd highest implied point total this week (27.5), come in 6th in points per game (27.9), 9th in yards per game (356) and 2nd in Redzone Conversion Percentage (71.1%). The Cowboys are 1st in seconds/snap (24.5), 2nd in plays/game (64.8), 5th in Pass Percentage Plus Pass Rate Over Expected (64.7%) and 3rd in Pass Percentage (64.9%). They also have protected the QB fairly well, coming in 7th in QB Pressure Percentage (28.7%). Both QBs get a bump based on the sum of pass offense DVOA vs pass defense DVOA. We know the Bengals will throw it all over the yard, but the Cowboys have also allowed Cooper Rush to throw it, and the Bengals are 29th in passing points allowed per game (16.4). The other skill position matchups look favorable across the board for both squads. This game has the highest O/U point total at 49.5.
This game has the 3rd fastest average of neutral seconds per snap (27.1). The Bills have scored 30+ points in each of their last 6 games and have the 3rd highest implied point total this week (26.5). They are 2nd in points per game (29.6), 10th in yards per game (347.5) and 3rd in Red Zone Conversion Percentage (66.7%). The Rams are 7th in seconds/snap (26.8), 9th in Pass Percentage Plus Pass Rate Over Expected (58.0%) and 7th in Pass Percentage (59.7%). This game is the best combined passing matchup (+55.3%) based on the sum of pass offense DVOA vs pass defense DVOA. The Rams mix in a lot of Zone coverage,e and WR Khalil Shakir is a zone buster, should take advantage vs. Rams CB Quentin Lake and is a great stacking option with Josh Allen that you can run it back with either of the Rams WR’s. The Rams have allowed 20 or more yards on 10.6% of passing plays, which is 30th in the league. It’s also a good matchup for RB James Cook and the running game as well, the Rams front allowing the 6th most yards before contact and teams are running the ball nearly 50% of the time vs them, the 3rd highest clip in the NFL.
These two teams have the 2nd fastest average of neutral seconds per snap (27.0). The Steelers are 3rd in the league in plays run per game (64.4) and run the 4th most Non-Two Minute No Huddle Percentage (19.3%). The project for the 3rd most plays this week (64.8) and get favorable matchups across all their skill positions (QB, RB, WR, TE) vs. this Browns defense. Since Russell Wilson took over as the starter, the Steelers games are 5-1 to the point total over. 15% of Wilson’s passes have gained 20 or more yards under Russ, the highest in the league, and the Browns defense allows 5 plays per game of 20-plus yards, 31st in the league. The Browns are 3rd in seconds/snap (25.7), 2nd in Pass Percentage Plus Pass Rate Over Expected (67.5%), 2nd in Pass Percentage (65.5%) and 7th in Non-Two Minute No Huddle Percentage (13.3%). Since Jameis Winston took over as the starter, games involving the Browns are 4-1 to the point total over with an average of 51 combined points per game over that span.
