This game should produce a lot of plays as these two teams have the fastest adjusted pace time for the week (27.3), along with one of the fastest averages of neutral seconds per snap (25.3). The Falcons are the 4th fastest in seconds/snap (25.3), 10th in Pass Percentage (57%), and 6th in Non-Two Minute No Huddle Percentage (17.9%). The Saints are 6th in seconds/snap (26.3), 8th in plays run/game (62.6), and 11th in Non-Two Minute No Huddle Percentage (10.7%). The Falcons face a Saints defense that has allowed 20 passing plays of 30 or more yards, the most in the league and gives up the second most yards per play (6.0). This is a good matchup for the running game, WRs, and TE Kyle Pitts. In his last 5 games, QB Kirk Cousins has completed 72% of his passes with 13 TDs. On the other side of the ball, the Saints will have to attack the Falcons in the air, as they are pretty stout vs the run. It’s a good matchup for QB Derek Carr and what is left of his WR’s & TE’s. The Falcons defense has been on the field way too much, which should allow the Saints offense to put together and sustain drives, their 28th in the NFL in plays per game (65.7). This game has an O/U point total of 46.5.
These two teams have the 2nd fastest averages of neutral seconds per snap (25.7). Although neither team has run a lot of plays, they have been trending up in that area over the last several games. The Bills have been upping their passing percentage, and it’s at a 60% clip over the last three games. The Bills have one of the highest implied points totals on the week (26.0), and they should see very little resistance from a struggling Colts defense. The matchups are favorable across all skill positions for the Bills vs a Colts defense that has been on the field more than any other team in football and ranks dead last in opponent plays per game (68.2). The Bills have scored TDs on 33% of their drives, which is the 3rd best. The Colts should be able to get the ground game going, then have QB Joe Flacco work off it to play-action. RB Jonathan Taylor gets a Bills defense that is one of the best matchups for opposing RBs based on adjusted fantasy points allowed. This game has the 4th highest O/U point total on the slate at 48.0.
At first glance, this game doesn’t jump off the page at you in terms of pace, but it does have the 5th fastest average of neutral seconds per snap (26.9) of games this week. The Jets are up to the 5th in Pass Percentage + Pass Rate Over Expected (65.6%) and Pass Percentage (63.5%). Arizona has the lowest success rate defending passing plays (50.8%) and is 29th in pressure rate (29.3%). Add to it that the Jets are allowing the 2nd lowest QB Pressure Percentage (25.2%), and they should be able to keep QB Aaron Rodgers upright and give him time to look downfield in this one. The matchups are favorable for all the Jets skill positions, and for DFS, you can even stack Rodgers with both of his WRs, Wilson and Adams, if you like. The Jets WRs look like the best point-per-dollar options on the slate! The Cardinals are 9th in seconds/snap (27.2), and they must play faster to keep up in this one. The Cardinals average 6.0 yards per play on early downs (7th best), and you can run on the Jets’ defense, which is middle of the pack vs. the run. The Cards should be able to protect QB Kyler Murray. They come in with the 5th lowest QB Pressure Percentage (27.4%), and he is going to have to use his legs, something the Jets defense has allowed the past few games. This game has an O/U point total of 46.5 and I think we get a sneaky shootout here in the Desert!
