If your league is four points per TD pass, Murray is even more interesting because he will score rushing TDs. Taking scoring settings out of the discussion for a moment, I want to look at the team context here. Murray is on a team with a horrible defense, so the Cardinals will be in many high-scoring games, and they will rely on Murray to put up plenty of points if they want to win games. Murray will benefit from garbage time points. Murray is your pick if you are like me and want upside by the time you get to round six. I am willing to bet that most high-stakes players agree with me. Murray could be a league winner this season if he can stay healthy. Take Murray and watch him outscore the top QBs consistently.
Although he is getting up there in age, Henry is still a beast, and joining this elite Ravens offense with an MVP QB in Lamar Jackson puts Henry in a position where he doesn’t have to carry the offense on his back like he did with the Titans for so many years. Instead, he can just dominate with the touches he gets, and I think he will lead all position players this season in TDs. He has the upside of an early 2nd-round RB, but I have been getting him in the mid to late third round, which seems like a steal, especially given that there is no depth at the RB position behind him in Baltimore.
Besides Jefferson and Chase, I don’t think the NFL has a more physically talented WR. In terms of strength, I don’t think any WR in the league is stronger than Metcalf. I have seen high-stakes players move him into the 2nd round because of it, and I am all for it. He has always been great, but with a new coaching staff and offensive philosophy in Seattle this year, you should expect to see a more pass-heavy approach than we have seen over the years under Pete Carroll, and Metcalf will be the main beneficiary of that. Last year, Metcalf took a step back in terms of targets and receptions; he only had 66 catches on 119 targets compared to 90 catches on 141 targets in 2022. He did have more yards, though, and this season, expect Metcalf to get back to the 90-100 reception range and match his career high in yards of 1300, which came back in 2020. He has had two seasons of double-digit TDs, and I expect him to get back to that this season as well. My prediction: 94 catches, 11 TDS, and 1350 receiving yards.
I think Evan Engram is elite; he just doesn’t get the recognition for being elite. Even though Engram has lacked TDs throughout his career, since arriving in Jacksonville, he has been a targets and receptions monster, including a massive 114-catch season a year ago. He remains the favorite and number-one receiving option in the Jags offense, and if you can get a player in round seven who can make 100 catches, get around 1,000 yards, and is a TE, I think you are a little crazy not to take him. He has the potential to be a top-three TE in fantasy this season because of his receptions, and he is going significantly later than LaPorta, Kincaid, McBride, Kelce, and Andrews.
