Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
Unlike last week, the “main slate” on DraftKings is the full four-game slate this weekend, making it a bit more natural for us to focus on that slate in this piece. There are some massive contests for the four-gamer, so let’s get into it!
First off, the diminutive and sequential nature of the slate means we are much more concerned with optimal than we would be on, say, a full slate or a slate that is played concurrently. This is the first thing that is going to shape our game plan development. From there, we must understand that this is the playoffs, and all four of these games carry a wide range of outcomes with respect to the eventual game environment. Any one of these teams can score points; these teams all have solid-to-elite defenses (sorry, maybe not all – looking at you, San Francisco), and most of these matchups are strength-on-strength spots. For that reason, ownership expectations outside of the extremes (the players projected for the most ownership and those that reside in the sub-5% range) mean far less to us. That said, the players residing on the extremes of expected ownership mean a whole hell of a lot to us – more on this below.
Within that same discussion, any team stack or game environment bet carries theoretical meaning, considering any one of these teams or games could become a “game or team you need.”
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Good player, good matchup, good play.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Good player, playing without George Kittle, which should elevate his target floor. Good play.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Good player, good matchup, good play.
