Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
Similar to last week where we had just three games with a game total north of 47.0 points, Week 2 shapes up the same way. That said, we have an additional two games on this slate that bring a game total just under that threshold, providing five total game environments where we expect the field to be focused on in Week 2. We are also already into the “backup running back thrust into a lead role” realm of the season with Austin Ekeler ruled out and Joshua Kelley the expected lead back. That is going to fundamentally alter how people build rosters this week. Finally, the old (as in, like a few years old) adage of “you know nothing, Jon Snow” gains increased magnitude this week after recency biases and misunderstood team tendencies were introduced a week ago. The macro theoretical perspective of the slate is to embrace additional variance through well-constructed builds!
Quick explanation: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
Before we get into the expected chalk on this slate, it is important to annotate just how condensed the field seems to be in Week 2. Typically, on a standard slate, we see seven to eight players garner more than 15 percent ownership, which is my personal threshold for classifying a play as chalk. On the Week 2 slate, there are 17 players expected to be on more than 15 percent of rosters in play. We are not going to list every single player expected for more than 15 percent ownership, so we’ll focus only on the top seven to eight plays.
Yes, Austin Ekeler is out. That said, we shouldn’t fall victim to thinking Kellen Moore’s run-heavy ways will carry forward from Week 1. The Chargers boasted the league’s most valuable backfield a season ago, but the matchup is the worst on the slate on paper, meaning Joshua Kelley will likely need to score multiple touchdowns to return value, even at a low price of $5,000 on DraftKings. Did we not learn our lesson last week with a chalk running back against this Titans defense?
The rookie slot man did his best Cooper Kupp impression in Week 1 and I’m of the opinion it was not a fluke. Puka Nacua remains an intriguing volume play for as long as Kupp remains out of the lineup.
Aaron Jones and Christian Watson are presumably out. One of the primary pieces of tight end coverage for the Falcons in Troy Anderson is out. I can’t make a negative comment about Luke Musgrave as far as expected workload is concerned. The biggest knock to the rookie tight end is expected game environment. The Packers and Falcons might combine for under 120 offensive plays run from scrimmage on Sunday through slow pace of play and heavy rush rates. The Packers also carry a Vegas implied team total of under 21 points. I’m okay looking elsewhere on low-volume chalk at the tight end position.
Calvin Ridley immediately proved that his preseason was no fluke. He is back – and with vengeance on the league. Ridley commanded an elite 34.4 percent team target market share and 33.3 percent targets per route run rate in Week 1 and plays in the top game environment on the week. Again, I can’t really make a negative remark directed at his expected volume here. The biggest path to failure for Ridley is for someone else on the Jaguars to succeed as opposed to Ridley “failing.”
David Montgomery held a solid 77 percent snap rate in Week 1 but reports from head coach Dan Campbell indicate higher involvement from rookie Jahmyr Gibbs moving forward. The matchup on the ground against Seattle is fine, but not what it was last season considering the presence of Bobby Wagner and Uchenna Nwosu in the linebacker corps. Does Montgomery have a path to 100 yards and two or more scores? Maybe?
Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers combined for 73.1 percent of the team’s available targets in Week 1, highlighting the same level of concentration that was found in this Josh McDaniels offense in 2022. Meyers will now miss Week 2 with a concussion, leaving Adams with one of the higher projected volumes on the slate. The biggest knock here is a Bills defense with a clear run-funnel nature (wink, wink) after playing absurd levels of nickel Cover-3 in Week 1.
I was honestly shocked to see the field exhibit extreme confidence in Deebo Samuel being the player to erupt from the 49ers this week. We can say, with a high level of confidence, that one of Christian McCaffrey, Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, or George Kittle is likely to have a GPP-worthy score against the Rams, the problem is we have no clear indication of which player that is likeliest to be here. Could it be Samuel? Sure, it could! Does the percentage chance of it being Samuel match the field’s expected interest in Deebo? No, sir or ma’am.
The Ravens continue to be a pass-funnel defense through the presence of nose tackle Michael Pierce and their defensive scheme. They will also be without cornerback Marlon Humphrey and safety Marcus Williams, meaning Rock Ra-Sin and Brandon Stephens are likely to enter the starting lineup in the secondary. While not to the same extreme as in previous years, this presents a slight boost to the pure matchup for all Cincinnati pass-catchers.
Permanent Price Bump coming at the end of Week 2!
Lock in the lower price for life!
