Hilow is a game theory expert and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
This week continues the recent theme in the NFL of low game totals, COVID-induced uncertainty, and mega-chalk. Five running backs are expected to garner more than 20% ownership, with the top four of them priced below $6,000 in salary. There are only three wide receivers expected to garner more than 20% ownership, but two of them are expected to be 35%+. Quarterback, tight end, and defensive ownership is expected to be all over the place as the field fights through the information overload. What information overload, you ask? More than 300 players (about 17% of all active players in the league) have been added to the league’s COVID list over the past two weeks. That is a staggering number.
Neither restrictive chalk nor expansive chalk. Best cost-considered, on-paper running back play on the slate. Range of outcomes is much more secure this week than last week.
Neither restrictive chalk nor expansive chalk. Theoretically set for 18-22 running back opportunities against a run-funnel defense, in a game the Bucs should control. Mental lapses keep him from my personal Tier 1 cadre.
Expansive chalk. All but guaranteed to see 18+ running back opportunities against a Texans team allowing 27.2 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, which will also likely be without 20+ players due to a COVID outbreak, at a price of only $4,200.
Neither restrictive chalk nor expansive chalk. Has averaged over seven targets per game over the past three games and should be good for 22-25 running back opportunities, with room for more. Hasn’t cracked the 100-yard rushing bonus since Week 4 and has only four touchdowns on the season. Very interesting leverage possibilities available, which we’ll cover below.
Restrictive chalk. All but guaranteed 22-25 running back opportunities in a difficult matchup on the ground against the Rams. Pass game involvement keeps his floor high. Cost-considered ceiling intact, albeit coming with a decreased chance of success.
Expansive chalk, just barely. Might possibly be the most underpriced wide receiver we’ve seen all season. Likeliest scenario yields seven to nine targets, with legitimate paths to 15+ looks here.
Restrictive chalk. Zero analysis needed at this point, à la 2019 Davante Adams. One of the few plays on the slate that has a legitimate path to 40+ fantasy points.
Restrictive chalk. One of the few plays on the slate that has a legitimate path to 40+ fantasy points. Difficult matchup on paper, but we’re highly unlikely to see Jalen Ramsey shadow here.
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