Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
If we use the same process to narrow down our player pool as we did last week, we’ll find (once again) that the field seems to be struggling to identify what is important on this slate. First off, the 49ers carry a Vegas-implied team total that is more than five points higher than any other team on the slate (29.75). Yes, Vegas implied team total is not the end all, be all of our decision-making process, but the 49ers have such a high hit rate of scoring 30 points or more under current conditions that we can have a fairly high degree of confidence in this one. Rule number one – we must account for the 49ers.
Next up, let’s turn our attention to ownership. There are three players expected to garner more than 30 percent ownership on this slate – Zack Moss, Browns D/ST, and Christian McCaffrey. On most slates, there are one or zero players expected to be on more than 30 percent of the rosters in play, and this week gives us three. Since McCaffrey was accounted for already in rule number one and since defensive scoring is the most variant of any position, we don’t need to account for them here. Rule number two – we must account for Zack Moss.
Finally, there are three game environments that carry the best chances of turning into something you had to have on a slate riddled with poor expected game environments. Those three games are Bills-Chiefs, Lions-Bears, and Colts-Bengals. Rule number three – we must account for the Bills, Chiefs, Lions, Bears, Colts, and Bengals.
Before we continue, I do want to emphasize the fact that just because we’ve identified the places we must account for on this slate does not necessarily mean we have to play players from each of those situations on every roster. As we saw last week, sometimes we account for these spots through leverage and sometimes we account for them by playing them – these are simply the spots with the greatest chances of influencing the slate.
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Zack Moss saw 19 carries and three targets on 94 percent of the offensive snaps last week in the absence of Jonathan Taylor. Taylor has been ruled out for the second consecutive week, leaving Moss with a likeliest range of outcomes of 22-25 running back opportunities in a matchup with a Bengals team allowing 4.8 yards per carry, 1.56 yards allowed before contact, and 22.3 DK points per game behind 11 total touchdowns to opposing backfields this season.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. The field is showing us a couple of things with the extreme levels of ownership currently expected on the Browns defense. First off, we should expect the field to be looking to save salary at the position this week due to the relative absence of projectable value pieces. Secondly, the field might find it difficult to react to late-week news this week as Trevor Lawrence is actually listed as questionable after suffering an ankle injury late in the team’s Week 13 loss.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The running back with the most valuable role and workload playing for the team with the highest Vegas implied team total. It makes sense why Christian McCaffrey is expected to garner extreme levels of ownership on a slate devoid of top-end environments.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Rashee Rice has seen his route participation rate increase in consecutive weeks and is coming off of 19 targets over his previous two games, appearing to finally introduce some level of consistency from the Kansas City wide receivers in the process. I won’t fight this one, Rice is a solid on-paper play considering he plays in the top expected game environment of the week on a pass-first offense that will now be without their top running back.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. After starting the season not seeing elite-level volume, Bijan Robinson has seen 22 running back opportunities or more in three consecutive weeks. The fact that he plays for a team averaging just 18.8 points per game puts a slight damper on this situation, but Robinson is a fine on-paper play this week.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Clyde Edwards-Helaire became the top “projectable value” piece on the slate after Isiah Pacheco was ruled out. If you read that as a ringing endorsement to play Edwards-Helaire, you would be mistaken. To me, that speaks to the lack of projectable value on this slate and not to the viability of Edwards-Helaire, who is likely to cede green zone touches to Jerick McKinnon and is still susceptible to losing work to someone like Deneric Prince.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. It might surprise you to hear that Nico Collins was the first pass-catcher to go for more than a modest 59 yards against the Broncos during their recent 5-1 stretch. And it isn’t like they played a string of bottom-feeder offenses, they did this against the Packers, Chiefs, Bills, Vikings, Browns, and Texans. That does not necessarily mean Allen can’t or won’t succeed here, just that the micro matchup is far worse than most will realize going into the slate.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Elijah Moore is a fantastic on-paper value saver on this slate . . . if Joe Flacco starts for the Browns and if Amari Cooper is out. Dorian Thomspson-Robinson cleared concussion protocol, but head coach Kevin Stefanski has yet to announce whether he or Flacco will start on Sunday. The Cooper situation appears more certain after he managed only one limited session on Friday, indicating he had yet to make it to the final stages of the concussion protocol.
