Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
Forget everything about this slate and join me on a quick journey. Forget the game totals. Forget the expected ownership numbers. Forget who your favorite plays are. Let’s start with what’s important this week. The median game total value is up again compared to the previous three main slates. That means we’re likely to require a higher raw score to ship GPPs this week. That is truth number one. Accept it as gospel because it absolutely must influence the way we construct rosters this week. The next inflection point of this slate is Zack Moss, but not in the way you’re probably thinking right now (more on this below).
Now let’s turn our attention to the game totals and pick out what is truly important, with one eye kept firmly on our first point above. Yes, there are four games in our “magic range” of game totals, which for this year is about 45.0 and higher (down from about 47.0 and higher last year). These are the games we should be looking to account for on each slate this season because scoring is so hard to come by. But if we look at which teams are expected to approach four touchdowns worth of scoring (which for this season is around a Vegas implied team total of 26.0 points), we see that only one team carries an implied team total over 26.0 points (Dolphins). Enter inflection point number three. We must account for the Dolphins on this slate.
The remaining three teams with implied team totals approaching four touchdowns are the Lions, Texans, and 49ers. Of those three teams, which one is in the game environment with the best chances of turning the slate on its head? It’s the 49ers at the Eagles. This is inflection point number four, with particular attention paid to the 49ers. If we played out this slate 100 times, the situations that influence GPP-winning lineups most often would be Zack Moss, the Dolphins, and the 49ers-Eagles game. This should govern the starting point of our roster construction this week. From there, we start to consider the next teams on the pedestal, or hierarchy, of importance (Texans and Lions) before searching for individual, or one-off, plays. Thus, our tightest player pool at quarterback would look something like Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, and Brock Purdy, with C.J. Stroud and Jared Goff on the fringes.
I wanted to use this space this week to explore a repeatable process for narrowing down a player pool, which has been a hot topic of discussion in recent weeks. The process leads to the plays, not ownership, not groupthink, not perception. Process.
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
The top point-per-dollar expectation since Week 3. It’s as simple as that. How we handle the extreme chalk with Zack Moss is going to be more important than simply asking ourselves, “Should we play Moss at extreme ownership or fade him?” This game is not about ones and zeroes, it’s much more complex than that. So, how do we play Moss on rosters that include him and how do we maximize leverage on the rosters that don’t?
Rachaad White struggles in the area that the Panthers defense struggles to defend (on the ground) and excels in the area that the Panthers defense does well in defending (targets to running backs). White can obviously find his way into multiple touchdowns in this spot, but that’s exactly what we’ll need for a GPP-worthy score from Mr. White this week.
The player with the most explosive plays on the team generating the most explosive plays against the defense giving up the most explosive plays through the air. Checks out. Tyreek Hill is in a glorious spot for elite production in Week 13.
I was honestly shocked to see Christian McCaffrey coming in with the levels of expected ownership he is garnering at present. The Eagles face the highest pass rate over expectation this season and have largely suppressed opposing running back production. That said, McCaffrey is on a different planet than the other backs in the league and is always capable of piercing 100 yards on the ground and/or through the air and carries the most valuable red zone role in the league. He is also playing in the game environment with the best chances of developing into something we had to have this week.
As JM pointed out this week, there isn’t a massive difference in the expected workloads of Javonte Williams and Zack Moss this week. The field has identified that truth successfully, it seems. That said, Williams is a guy I’d personally be more comfortable playing at lower ownership considering the other backs on the slate.
Another back with a solid expected workload in a non-ideal spot. That seems to be the theme of DFS in 2023.
I get it, play the defense against Tim Boyle – it makes sense. The Falcons have done a solid job at suppressing overall offensive production this season but have been atrocious at generating turnovers (just 12 turnovers through 11 games played). Boyle surely increases the odds of multiple turnovers, but there are better shots to take at defense this week, at least on paper.
