Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
This slate is as unique as they come. The field has largely gotten better at identifying projectable value pieces that allow you to pay up in one or two spots. The field has also gotten better at identifying the clear top options at the running back position. The field has also gotten better at identifying the top game environment on a given slate. From what I’m seeing now (as of Saturday morning), the field is struggling with all three of those basic DFS tenets this week. This presents a unique opportunity to generate leverage without straying too far from optimal theory – remember, leverage, by definition, is an exploitative stance taken by deviating from optimal, generating enough of a boost in expected value to offset the expected value lost from the deviation itself. On this slate, those deviations can be lesser in magnitude and closer to optimal theory. That’s a setup we have yet to see this season, and I think it has something to do with a generalized lull given off by multiple slates in a row that have appeared very similar on the surface. We’ve also had the top expected game environment largely fail for multiple slates in a row, which all come together to add to the psychological aspects of recency bias and a feeling of “well, it didn’t work last time, so why would it work now?” The fact that this slate comes after Thanksgiving, where people lose time to invest into DFS due to the holidays and being stretched by multiple DFS slates, and then add in a Black Friday game to that equation, has left us in a state where more mistakes are appearing to be made by the field than any slate in recent memory. With that, let’s dive in!
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
NEITHER EXPANSIVE NOR RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Another week, another slate where Cardinals second-year tight end Trey McBride is expected to garner the most ownership on the slate. Expect this week he is a better on-paper play than at any other point this season but is at the highest price of the year. I’ll be looking for ways to play McBride smartly where I do play him.
NEITHER EXPANSIVE NOR RESTRICTIVE CHALK. We’ve seen the Colts overcome difficult on-paper rushing matchups in multiple spots this season and Jonathan Taylor has worked his way back into a workhorse role, playing 88 percent of the team’s offensive snaps in Week 10 before their Week 11 bye. Even so, the Buccaneers have held opposing backs to just 3.7 yards per carry behind 1.12 yards allowed before contact, both of which rank top five in the league. The Buccaneers are also one of only two teams yet to allow a rushing score to a running back this season, resulting in just 16.8 DK points allowed per game to the position. I legitimately don’t understand how the field can be so certain with Taylor in this spot, who currently appears to be one of the most owned plays of the season.
NEITHER EXPANSIVE NOR RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Here we go again with Evan Engram. Engram has seen seven or eight targets in a whopping seven of 10 games played this season, providing an excellent volume expectation. That said, he holds a modest 10.0 percent red zone target share (just three red zone targets all year) and a silly 4.4 aDOT, resulting in zero touchdowns and no more than 88 yards in a game this season. That is not a profile you play at ownership, even if there’s a fire.
NEITHER EXPANSIVE NOR RESTRICTIVE CHALK. I was honestly surprised to see Pittman amongst the leaders in expected ownership on this slate. The matchup is great against the pass-funnel Buccaneers defense that utilizes elevated rates of Cover-1 and Cover-3, but an 8.1 aDOT on routes that don’t tend to lead to additional per-target upside (his prototypical “X” wide receiver role has him running a lot of possession-type routes) leaves a lot to be desired. That should be evidenced by his one game of 100 yards or more receiving while seeing 11 or more targets a massive six times already this year. Pittman is very clearly priced for his median outcome and is now at his highest salary of the season up at $6,800. This is a spot I’m fine being underweight on at ownership as he is highly unlikely to fully burn you for not playing him.
NEITHER EXPANSIVE NOR RESTRICTIVE CHALK. We’re really excited to play a defense generating the fifth lowest rate of pressure that has generated just 10 total turnovers through 10 games played at ownership? I’m not.
NEITHER EXPANSIVE NOR RESTRICTIVE CHALK. I get it, Dalton Kincaid’s involvement has been both solid and consistent with Dawson Knox out of the lineup. That said, Kincaid’s likeliest range of outcomes leads to six to seven targets in a matchup that is no more difficult for tight ends after the Eagles signed Kevin Byard at the deadline. Kincaid has a solid point-per-dollar median projection but leaves a lot to be desired in the upside side of the discussion here.
NEITHER EXPANSIVE NOR RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Jacksonville pass-catchers, as a unit, have five games of 100 or more yards through the air this season. This is simply an unconcentrated, moderate volume pass offense with a head coach and offensive play caller that requires outside influence to increase the aerial aggression. In other words, we better be playing a member of the Texans if utilizing any Jaguars skill position player this week.
