Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
Check this out. On last week’s slate, a slate with borderline limitless uncertainty, we had NINE players projecting for more than 20% ownership. On this upcoming Week 11 slate, a slate with a median game total higher than last week, a slate where there are actually game environments that can put the slate out of reach, a slate in which there is more value available, we have only THREE players expected to garner 20% ownership or more. If this doesn’t prove that the field has yet to work out how to accurately diagnose a slate, I’m not sure what will. The edge lives on, friends. Without going into the complete theory behind this assertion (those who have been with us all year will recognize where this is coming from), the number of chalk pieces from the Week 10 and Week 11 slates should be flipped.
But here we are, the Week 11 main slate in the year of our Lord 2024 on our horizon. The state of this slate is highly likely to yield scores in the high 190s or low 200s, which gives us our starting point for the decision-making process we will use to formulate our game plan to attack the slate. We’re going to need some outlier-type production, and targeting the archetype of player (or team, or game environment, wink wink) that has that within their range of outcomes is going to be paramount. With that, let’s check out this slate, shall we?
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Kamara has been a PPR and volume machine in games without Kendre Miller this season, which is funny because former head coach Dennis Allen absolutely hated Miller. Either way, Kamara carries one of the highest weekly floors at the position. The main problem is that the Saints have really struggled to move the football with all the injuries this season, making it that much harder for Kamara to put the slate out of reach at his lofty price tag.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. A case can be made that Achane is one of the most fundamentally underpriced players on this slate considering he has returned what amounts to WR10 production through the air in games with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa this season, plus the 10-12 carries we can expect on a weekly basis. It quickly becomes difficult to poke holes in Achane in a vacuum at his current salary.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. CMC made his season debut in Week 10 and immediately stepped into a workhorse role for the 49ers, handling an 88% snap share, all but six running back snaps, and all but two running back opportunities. He. Is. Back. Side note – he was such an amazing leverage play last week at modest ownership – damn.
expires end of 12/2!
