Thursday, Sep 19th

Early Prop Bets: Swift, Montgomery, Mack

I have a couple of full-season player stats props for you as we head into the NFL season. If all these guys have healthy seasons, I expect them to reach these markers easily.  All odds are courtesy of DraftKings. I would definitely consider putting these together in a parlay!

D’Andre Swift O750.5 rush yds (-110)

The Bears have added a massive weapon to their offense this year in D’andre Swift. Swift had a 1,000-yard season last year and has just joined an offense that ranked second last year in team rushing yards. Shows their commitment to the run game and their ability to execute it. You give Swift a full season of opportunity in a much improved Bears offense, and I think he will easily repeat as a 1,000-yard rusher. The Bears have a great trio of receivers for the rookie Caleb Williams to throw to, but I think they will still build on their success in the run game while protecting Williams. Swift can easily go over this low total of 750.5 rushing yards. 

David Montgomery O8.5 TDS (-115)

We all know how potent the Lions’ offense has become. They have great weapons on every offensive unit, including the offensive line. Last year, they ranked 1st in the league in rushing TDs and 3rd in total TDs. Not much has changed in Detroit, as they have the same offensive coordinator in Ben Johnson. The finisher they have in the running game, David Montgomery, excelled in the position last year, and I expect no different this year. Montgomery finished off 13 drives last year with a 1,000-yard season. Gibbs is expected to have a bigger role, but I expect Montgomery to maintain the role of getting through the goal line in close quarters. I like David Montgomery to go over his rushing touchdown total of 8.5.

Khalil Mack O8.25 Sacks (-110)

Jim Harbaugh is the new head guy for the Chargers in Los Angeles, and he brings with him some of his Michigan staff, including defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. Michigan ranked 3rd last year in pressure rating, according to pff.com. To start off his tenure in Los Angeles, he has been given the gift of a game wrecker in Khalil Mack. Mack had a breakout year last year, showing what we have expected from him in his career, putting up 17 sacks last season. I think Mack is positioned to have another stellar season with the new culture that focuses on defense and the run game. His sack total is 8.25, and I think this is a number he can hit with the new culture.

Let’s get a couple of W’s!