Dummy Grid 8.24
JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
OWS Fam ::
This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
The Grid ::
Bottom-Up Build
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
Blue Chips
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
Build-Arounds
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
Building Blocks
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
Bonuses
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Beta
:: a new category for 2024! — these are players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds
Bottom-Up Build
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).
Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.2K
Jameis Winston
D’Andre Swift
Javonte Williams
Cedric Tillman
Jerry Jeudy
Tyreek Hill
Cade Otton
Troy Franklin
Broncos
Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!
Buy-In:
Free
Rules:
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!
Prizes:
1st Place = 150 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
2nd Place = 75 Edge Points
3rd Place = 40 Edge Points
*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS
<< “BUB Challenge” Discord >>
*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win
Blue Chips
Tyreek Hill
From my DFS Interpretations :: Tyreek got hurt in Week 14 last year, missed Week 15, and tapered off in Weeks 16-18; but before that, he posted 25.8 or more DraftKings points in nine of 12 games — while failing to post elite production against only the early-season Patriots, the Bills, and the Chiefs (two defenses that ranked top six last year in fewest yards allowed to wideouts). Arizona ranks 10th in DVOA against the run and 29th against the pass. Tyreek was in the rare class of players last year who were underpriced even in the mid-$8ks, and he’s now $7k this week.
I almost never go fully 100% on a player in MME, but I personally expect Tyreek to be as high as 60% owned in tourneys (especially single-entry), and I would like to be overweight the field. I won’t be surprised if he ends up on 80% of my rosters this week. If I lose because $7k Tyreek bombed in a good matchup, I’m okay with that.
“Light Blue” Chips
Build-Arounds
Building Blocks
“Core”
Jameis Winston + Cedric Tillman + “one other Browns piece” + Tyreek Hill
Story:
“Jameis throws the ball, and Tyreek smashes”
Why It Works:
The Ravens face the third highest opponent pass play rate and have allowed the most pass plays in the NFL of 20+ yards, while Tyreek Hill is one of the most underpriced plays we will see for a long time.
How It Works:
This week, I want to have a tighter core I’m betting on that allows me to mix and match high-upside plays around it. If my core produces at a decent level, I’ll have a shot at landing on the right mix-and-match pieces and having a big weekend. If my core smashes, I’ll almost certainly have a big weekend. And if my core fails, that’s the weekend gone; but as a former, long-time “true single-entry” player, I don’t really mind that. Jameis won’t be the quarterback all the time on this build, and I have a few other pieces that might push for hefty exposure (Broncos defense; possibly Breece Hall; mix-and-match of Texans), but the general idea for me this week will be, “Hope my core hits, and know I’ll be in good shape if it does.”
POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
“Split Stack”
Bink Machine
A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.
Texans
I’m not sure yet if I’ll truly go ALL-IN here, but if I don’t, I may be close.
This rule (in the “team stacks” // “team constraints” area) says, “Play one player from the Texans on every roster.”
The thinking :: in 56% of their games with C.J. Stroud, the Texans have produced 25+ DK points from at least one player, and they have produced 29+ in all three matchups with the Colts. Mixing and matching Texans pieces is a highly viable strategy. Tank Dell and Joe Mixon are my favorite plays of the bunch, but I’ll also have some Schultz and some Diggs. Again, I may instead do something like 80% of rosters with a piece from the Texans, but this all-in rule is a perfectly viable way to attack MME, especially if you have a tight core you’re betting on this week (like me).
Bonuses
If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
QB ::
Possibly Lamar Jackson on tighter builds || possibly Josh Allen on tighter builds || possibly Jalen Hurts // Joe Burrow (in full-on game stacks) on tighter builds || possibly Caleb Williams on tighter builds || Anthony Richardson || Jameis Winston; said differently :: “Definitely Anthony Richardson and Jameis on tighter builds, and some selection from these other options on tighter builds as well”
RB ::
A Wrap ::
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
-JM
