JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat) who is focusing this year on single-entry/three-entry max
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (above).
Amon-Ra St. Brown
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No “true blue” chips for me this week; let’s move onto the “light blues” ::
Ehlinger is a completely different discussion on FanDuel, where he’s priced similarly to a lot of other guys, and is therefore just “a guy in a pile of potential options” as opposed to “a critical decision point.” On DraftKings, however, he’s very much a “light blue” chip for me, and he’s a guy I won’t be concerned about playing at high ownership.
As laid out in my DFS Interpretations for this game:
It’s tough to get into any deeper nuance in written format, but I explored the Ehlinger situation a bit more deeply in this week’s Angles podcast.
33 // 30 // 25 // 25
32 // 30 // 29
The first list is Henry’s touches in his last four games.
The second list is the Texans’ rank in run defense DVOA, adjusted line yards, and yards allowed per carry.
You probably don’t need me to tell you that the Big Dog is a strong option this week, but consider this to be your confirmation that this is, in fact, the case.
New this year: these are unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
“This game outperforms all the others on the slate, but doesn’t go truly nuclear”
Most people would be including Tua in their Tyreek // Amon-Ra builds, instead of including Mostert. While all three of these players will have high ownership, this particular structure will be a unique way to play things.
As we’ve explored throughout the week, it’s completely possible for this week to play out in such a way that a game total of 60 to 65 ends up as the “had to have it” environment. If this game explodes for 80+ points, having Tua or Goff will be necessary; but what if all the low-total games disappoint, the other two middling-total games hit their middling totals, and this game goes for 60 to 65? In that (not unlikely) scenario, the focal points of theses offenses would likely be posting high-end scores, while the quarterbacks would likely be posting middling scores. This building block accounts for the facts that A) Detroit has an awful run defense, B) Miami wants their offense to be built off the run, and C) Tyreek Hill (12+ targets in 5/7 games) is enough of a focal point that he can hit without dragging his quarterback up with him. Pairing this block with an Ehlinger roster or with a game stack from ARI/MIN or LV/NO is a unique, high-upside way to attack this slate.
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
Ehlinger || Tua // Goff || Cousins || Hurts || Daniel Jones
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!