Sunday, Feb 12th — Late
Bye Week:
49ers
Bears
Bengals
Bills
Broncos
Browns
Buccaneers
Cardinals
Chargers
Colts
Commanders
Cowboys
Dolphins
Falcons
Giants
Jaguars
Jets
Lions
Packers
Panthers
Patriots
Raiders
Rams
Ravens
Saints
Seahawks
Steelers
Texans
Titans
Vikings

Dummy Grid 8.22

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat) who is focusing this year on single-entry/three-entry max


OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing


The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective


Angles Pod

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Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (above).

Correlated Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K

Sam Ehlinger
Raheem Mostert
Tony Pollard
Tyreek Hill
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Van Jefferson
Logan Thomas
Braxton Berrios
Jets

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:
Free

Rules:
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:
150 Edge Points (good for two free DFS Education courses!) + ‘Discord Blue’ color in Discord!

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<< Week 7 Breakdown >>


Blue Chips

No “true blue” chips for me this week; let’s move onto the “light blues” ::

“Light Blue” Chips
Sam Ehlinger

Ehlinger is a completely different discussion on FanDuel, where he’s priced similarly to a lot of other guys, and is therefore just “a guy in a pile of potential options” as opposed to “a critical decision point.” On DraftKings, however, he’s very much a “light blue” chip for me, and he’s a guy I won’t be concerned about playing at high ownership.

As laid out in my DFS Interpretations for this game:

  • We should expect Ehlinger to be popular this week, so it’s worth thinking through a few of the ways this could play out:
    • Ehlinger could disappoint, which would likely be something in the range of 10 to 13 DraftKings points (maybe 200 or fewer passing yards, only 30ish rushing yards, and no touchdowns — or perhaps throw a passing touchdown in there, but take away some of the passing yards)
    • Ehlinger could have “about the game we would expect,” which would be between 200 and 250 passing yards, 30 to 50 rushing yards, and one score he accounts for — leading to something like 15 to 20 points
    • Ehlinger could surprise with 250+ passing yards, 50+ rushing yards, and multiple touchdowns — leading to something like 23 to 25 points
    • Given the state of the slate, I would genuinely be happy with any of those outcomes if rostering him, basically looking at it as a situation in which I’m keeping pace with the field there, and gaining an edge somewhere else; with that said, there are plenty of +EV ways to not play Ehlinger on DK, including A) game stacks that bet on one game significantly outperforming the others, B) playing a cheap QB (any of the guys at $6.2k or below) who has legitimate 30-point potential, as a 30-burger would be worth the extra salary spent, especially if Ehlinger finishes in the middle or lower end of his potential range, or C) playing one of the top-end QBs (Kyler/Hurts), hoping that one of these guys pops for 30 or 35+, that Ehlinger disappoints, and that all the cheaper QBs end up in the 20ish-point range (that sounds like “a lot that needs to go right,” but you’d be a favorite for all those things breaking your way)
    • It should go without saying that Ehlinger will be on my list, though I’ll also be looking for other ways to play this slate

It’s tough to get into any deeper nuance in written format, but I explored the Ehlinger situation a bit more deeply in this week’s Angles podcast.

Derrick Henry

33 // 30 // 25 // 25

32 // 30 // 29

The first list is Henry’s touches in his last four games.

The second list is the Texans’ rank in run defense DVOA, adjusted line yards, and yards allowed per carry.

You probably don’t need me to tell you that the Big Dog is a strong option this week, but consider this to be your confirmation that this is, in fact, the case.

Tony Pollard

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

New this year: these are unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Tyreek + Mostert + Amon-Ra
Cost: $21.3K DK // $22.7k FD
Story:

“This game outperforms all the others on the slate, but doesn’t go truly nuclear”

Why It Works:

Most people would be including Tua in their Tyreek // Amon-Ra builds, instead of including Mostert. While all three of these players will have high ownership, this particular structure will be a unique way to play things.

How It Works:

As we’ve explored throughout the week, it’s completely possible for this week to play out in such a way that a game total of 60 to 65 ends up as the “had to have it” environment. If this game explodes for 80+ points, having Tua or Goff will be necessary; but what if all the low-total games disappoint, the other two middling-total games hit their middling totals, and this game goes for 60 to 65? In that (not unlikely) scenario, the focal points of theses offenses would likely be posting high-end scores, while the quarterbacks would likely be posting middling scores. This building block accounts for the facts that A) Detroit has an awful run defense, B) Miami wants their offense to be built off the run, and C) Tyreek Hill (12+ targets in 5/7 games) is enough of a focal point that he can hit without dragging his quarterback up with him. Pairing this block with an Ehlinger roster or with a game stack from ARI/MIN or LV/NO is a unique, high-upside way to attack this slate.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

Ehlinger + Taylor

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Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Ehlinger || Tua // Goff || Cousins || Hurts || Daniel Jones

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM