Thursday, Dec 1st
Monday, Dec 5th
Bye Week:
Cardinals
Panthers

Dummy Grid 7.22

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat) who is focusing this year on single-entry/three-entry max


OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing


The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective


Angles Pod

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Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (above).

Correlated Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.2K

Tom Brady
Kenneth Walker
Justice Hill
Mike Evans
Donovan Peoples-Jones
Kalif Raymond
George Kittle
Hunter Renfrow
Jets

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:
Free

Rules:
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:
150 Edge Points (good for two free DFS Education courses!) + ‘Discord Blue’ color in Discord!

Join Here


Blue Chips

Mark Andrews

Andrews ranks third in the NFL among all players in team target market share — trailing only CeeDee Lamb and Cooper Kupp — while gathering target counts on the season of 7 // 11 // 13 // 5 // 5 // 10 // 11. Only five players have seen more red zone targets, and only Travis Kelce has more red zone touchdown receptions. Andrews is the focal point of this offense, and is in a spot where A) the Ravens are likely to lean into their passing attack given the state of their backfield, and B) the matchup is pristine vs a Cleveland defense that ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA. Andrews’ floor and ceiling at a thin position make him attractive this week.

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

New this year: these are unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Andrews + Amari
Cost: $13.5K DK // $15.7K FD
Story:

“Andrews does what he’s been doing…and this puts Amari in position to keep doing what he’s been doing”

Why It Works:

Andrews is carrying “moderate for him” ownership at this point in the week (as of Friday night, he’s projected at 12.9%), while Amari is projected for only 5.9% ownership; a lot of the Amari ownership is likely to be uncorrelated, and if it is correlated, it’s likely to be paired with Andrews/Lamar builds, making this particular pairing very unique.

How It Works:

Andrews can go for 25 to 30 in a “standard upside game” (with pathways to higher, break-the-slate type scores), while Amari has quietly compiled 20+ DraftKings point in three of six games, including games of 26.1 and 28.1. This is not a building block that “allows you to do whatever you want on the rest of your roster” (i.e., you can get 50+ points from these two — which would be tremendous — but you’ll still likely need to do at least one other thing differently on your roster in order to clear you path to first place), but it can become a very nice starting point, and it works well together. If Andrews is hitting for his high-end score, the chances of Amari posting a fifth game of double-digit targets increases, thus increasing the chances of him complementing Andrews’ big score with a big score of his own.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

Mahomes + Kelce + Deebo + Duvernay
Cost: $27.9K DK // $30.4K FD
Story:

“Mahomes beats this tough matchup through Kelce, the 49ers respond with Deebo, and Duvernay takes points away from the other high-priced tight end”

Why It Works:

Mahomes + Kelce will be relatively low-owned this week, and while Deebo is the most obvious bring-back, the pricing constraints created by this block will lead most people to move off it. Adding Duvernay (not necessary, but a nice bonus) accounts for the fact that this stack loses some of its power if Andrews is also hitting — which means that this roster’s clearest path to first place is for Andrews to disappoint…and the easiest way for him to disappoint is for the points on the Ravens to flow elsewhere. If Bateman is active, he can step in for Duvernay in this block. The Ravens running backs are also candidates to steal touchdowns from Andrews.

How It Works:

Given the large chunk of salary taken up by this block, and the low ownership it will see, you’ll be sitting very pretty if it hits the high end of its range of outcomes. As such, you can essentially “do whatever you want” on the rest of this roster. Obviously, the tight pricing you’re creating will force you onto a couple tough decisions elsewhere, but you can play as much chalk as you want // are able, as this block “hitting its ceiling” would put you in clear position for a first-place finish without needing to worry about being too different elsewhere.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

CeeDee + ARSB

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Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Lamar Jackson || Geno Smith || Justin Herbert || Patrick Mahomes || Tom Brady

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM