JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
:: a new category for 2024! — these are players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).
Joe Flacco
Antonio Gibson
Kyren Williams
Michael Pittman
Josh Downs
Brian Thomas Jr.
Erick All Jr.
Lil’Jordan Humphrey
Broncos
NOTE :: This week’s BUB was created before the Devin Singletary and Romeo Doubs news. An updated version might move from Gibson down to Tyrone Tracy and from Humphrey over to Bo Melton, while leaving $700 in salary to work with.
Free
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!
1st Place = 150 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
2nd Place = 75 Edge Points
3rd Place = 40 Edge Points
*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS
Not unusual at this point in the season; I don’t have any true Blue Chips I’m seeing this week.
“Ceiling”
Deebo Samuel and Jayden Reed are in no way correlated. But they have similar play styles and similar roles in their respective offenses (you’ll sometimes hear Reed called “the Deebo Samuel of the Packers offense”), and these play styles // roles are upside-generating, as each of these guys is regularly positioned to hit for big plays with the ball in his hands. Reed has two games already this year of 140+ total yards, and Deebo is no stranger to monster yardage totals himself. There is a scenario in which both of these guys go for 5x their Week 5 salary, which would lead to pairings of these two separating from the field in a somewhat major way.
There are plenty of spots this week from which ceiling might emerge, so playing these two together doesn’t complete your quest for a tourney win; but if these two hit, they could hit at such a level that this would prove to be one of the most important pairings on the slate.
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.
We have a long, lucrative history of “Kyren + Rams alpha wideout” combining for 60+ DraftKings points. Kyren + Whittington need less than 50 points to go for 4x their combined salary. This rule says, “On at least 60% of Kyren rosters, play both players from this pool.” Both guys will be popular this week, but this pairing won’t be particularly popular, and there are obvious opportunities for this to be the ideal way to attack this spot.
If I’m betting on Flacco, I’m ideally hoping he throws the ball 40 times. If he does, there’s a very good chance that BOTH Pittman and Downs hit at their price tags. I’ll leave a little bit of room for Flacco singles, but this rule says, “On at least 90% of Flacco rosters, play all three players from this pool.”
There are plenty of ways to attack the wide receiver position this week, but I see a very clear scenario in which two or three of Amari // Deebo // Jayden Reed score 30+ and prove to be the top wide receiver separators on the slate. This rule accounts for this possibility by saying, “On 15% of rosters, play two to three players from this pool.”
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
Brock Purdy || Jordan Love || Lamar Jackson (paired with any one of Henry // Flowers // Likely // Andrews) || Joe Burrow (paired primarily with Chase, but also with some Higgins, and with opportunity to add Iosivas or a TE to either of these two) || Joe Flacco
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
-JM